Originally Posted by
msbbarratt
I've occasionally wondered (flights of fancy, etc) just how committed to the A380 Emirates actually are. It's clear they'd prefer a NEOised version, but can't persuade Airbus / RR to do it. This is understandable, especially given RR's current difficulties; they've got to clear their current problem backlog before they commence yet another program. However, I'm wondering if Emirates would ever consider buying a controlling (or sufficiently large) stake in Airbus / RR to force the issue. The combined market capitalisation of both Airbus and Rolls Royce is currently somewhere about the $124billion (I think that's right in US$). Say Dubai spent, what, $40billion buying big stakes. Dubai could probably afford that. Would that be enough for Emirate to be able to "insist" a NEO is done? Is $40bill worth it if it means that they can continue their goal of global dominance of the long haul market by guaranteeing supply of the aircraft large enough and efficient enough to do it?
Like I said, a flight of fancy, but then by ordering so many already they've already demonstrated a willingness to bet pretty big sums.
$40B for 200 frames is 200M per copy of equity, plus the actual cost of the airplane. They might as well buy a fleet of F-35s for that kind of money. Emirates have a large fleet of 380s because DXB is a pair of dependent parallels and there are strict slot controls, so 380s are the only way to get the necessary capacity on a finite number of operations. (More 380s also means more bodies passing through Dubai Duty Free on their transits, which is a not-insignificant part of the business model.)
Once DWC comes along, capacity constraints will be relieved on one side of the equation. They'll still need 380s for high-capacity or prestige routes to other at-capacity airports (the LHRs and CDGs of the world), but they'd probably much rather fly X+1 779s rather than X 38Ns to a given destination.