Originally Posted by
Apple Tree Yard
Record stock market levels, record home prices, record low unemployment, 4.1% growth (and increasing), Boeing, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc, etc. As ACMS just pointed out, thank the Lord that the communist community organizer and his band of criminals has been ousted. The rest of the world will barely be able to hang onto the USA's coattails. You don't have to like the man, but at least he is putting America first, and rebuilding her manufacturing base, cutting taxes, invigorating business, cutting red tape, cutting legislation and finally putting a stop to the liberal madness that almost buried the country (and something that Europe seems hellbent on accomplishing). No need to argue the facts. Let's compare the USA and Europe in a decades time. Trump will be reelected by a landslide.
The majority of these "facts" are quite debatable in nature or at least the cause and effect relationship. Let's briefly look at it point by point...Record stock market levels: Determining the health a trading exchange cannot entirely be based on the index of a small fraction of the players. Even if you fall back on the primal measure of higher is better, I would offer that is true when majority of the nation is invested in said market valuation is that "good" for the nation, and not just a few individuals.
Record home prices: Not all that unlike of the above view of the stock market, one should ask if home prices are high who is that "good" for. It's probably not those who are first time home buyers allocating record proportions of their income to payments or those wishing to become home buyers. Current real estate trends are that entry level and lower priced home are in short supply and average age of first home owners is rising significantly. As above, if that question is asked who that is "good" for the answers are far from cut and dry.
Record low employment: This one which should be the most statistical fact based measurement is in fact the most debatable of all. Firstly because it's facts are anything but when you take into account the amount subjective assumptions built into Bureau of Labor Statistic's "magic black box" as it is known among economists. It has been this way since 20 years when my Econometrics professor opined about the nuclear launch code level secrecy of the BLS's adjustments. Secondly, it becomes holistically difficult to take the BLS U3 numbers on face value when the historical rates imply that labor wages should be rising when they are not. The latest pronouncements concerning this contradiction are that wages are expected to rise in later quarterly measurement this years as if they knew all along that wages would stay flat for the last 12 quarters. Even the head America First cheerleader, Trump, as a candidate, chided the U3 numbers as bunk, when he was trying to tap into the wave of populist frustration from middle income electorate. Funny how he's changed his mind on reliability of BLS reports.
As for the rest of the "facts" that there is no need to argue with...(please turn on sarcasm filter)
Let's start with the ending assertion of Trump winning is a landslide... current polling shows that to be far from the case. In spite of improved economic conditions, Trump has consistently polled unfavorably in all groups save for his base of white men who can sympathetically relate to his hair styling dilemmas. Maybe it's jealousy over his masterful ability to offend everyone in a room, but just as likely as his clever strategy to extort other nations in the world into hating America. It must be part of his brilliant plan to solve America's immigration issues.
/filter off
As for rebuilding manufacturing base... It's sorta funny to see those that exalt free market virtues artificially driving up base metal prices to the detriment of farmers, fisherman, construction firms, and many others, then
picking to aid one out of that group. Inventors of the five year economic plan would likely approve.
The cutting taxes part is one of the few areas Trump has not bungled (largely by taking a step back and letting congress do the dirty work). My opinion is mixed on this one as it has led to positive investment decisions by corporate holders of the purse strings, but increasing deficits will one day lead to a "settling of the books" lest the dollar lose out as the dominant international currency. What do you think the chances are that Pauls of today who are benefiting the most will offer to pay back Peter tomorrow? Any honest answer leads to a smaller government budget and the feudelists will continue to benefit as they do today.This debate could go on and on as unfortunately there are many "facts" that one can massage to support their view, but an objective look of the outlook based on realistic probabilities does not support the current path that Trump is taking as sustainable.