Originally Posted by
Volume
Which is less than the number of "conventional" 777 which have been ordered in the same timeframe in the past
The 777-300ER is far and away the best seller of the 777 series. 777X has sold more at this stage of its development than 777-300ER at the same stage of development.
Why should we assume that those large aircraft will be replaced with new large aircraft?
No one is assuming that. Just pointing out that there is an obvious large market and Boeing builds two aircraft that can address it, one at the bottom end of the market and one at the top end. A380 cannot really address that market at all.
I think this is because of the current ICAO standards. Airbus decided for the A380 to stick to it, Boeing decided for the 777 to work around it.
(ICAO Annex 14, Category F is the currently largest existing, and it is "65 m up to but not including 80 m ") The other option would be to create a category G (Gigantic). Airports will love it, longer piers at the airport means more shopping/restaurant area to rent out for profit...
The 777X without folding wingtips has LESS span than A380 (71.8m vs 79.8m) so it would never venture into category G territory. With folding wingtips 777X is in the same category as 777 and classic 747, which is to say category E (or design group V in the FAA system.). Which is the whole point of the folding wingtip. Unlike A380 and 747-8, airports and operators don't have to change anything for the 777X. Indeed, if 747-8 could fold its raked wingtip, it would have a category E wingspan also, just like the classic 747.