Originally Posted by
Volume
We will see how the 777X outsells the A380. Or not. The time of the very large aircraft may simply be over. .
We really don't have to wait. Boeing has already received 326 orders for the 777X. Airbus has received 331 orders for the A380. So essentially
already the same sales. 777X is not yet in production. A380 has been in production for over a decade. 777X was specifically designed to replace the 777-300ER, which will begin reaching the end or their economic service lives a few years after 777X begins deliveries. There were over 830 777-300ER ordered, so a pretty large market. That's also when many 747-400 reach the end of their service lives, which adds further to the size of the potential market. 777X is a much better replacement candidate for both than the A380. That being said, A350-1000 will compete in the bottom end of that market, so not all of that market will go to Boeing. But the likelihood that A380 will capture a significant portion of that market is close to nil. A380 operates in its own market, and its a niche. A niche market that is apparently shrinking, with both the 777X and A350 nibbling away at it.