Originally Posted by
DaveReidUK
No, the question is: would Boeing have abandoned the pax B748 if they saw a market capable of supporting two competitors? Nobody seriously thinks there is, it was just Boeing who blinked first, as everyone expected.
Both parts of that statement are undoubtedly true (and you could equally say that Boeing thought they could sell a bunch of B748s to replace old 747s). But to imply, as Boeing's forecast does, that Airbus are only going to sell an average of 3 A380s per year over the next 20 years sounds awfully like sour grapes.
I think to some extent it was the other way on. Boeing was pushing for large twins and the extended range of the 787 to support thin routes. That is happening. Indeed Airbus almost immediately generated a 787-like A350 also aimed at thin routes. Both B and A have trouble selling 4 holers and Boeing didn't think that the 74 market would continue but the 748F market is starting to grow,. However, the 380 has the problem of very limited cargo space and no cargo variant. For the bean counters high value freight is very important to the operator's bottom line so even if the pax like it the budget may not..