Telfer,
The S/Os undergoing JF/O upgrade right now joined approx 3 years ago. At that time, normal longhaul compliment was 1 x CN, 1 x RQ-FO, 1 x FO, 1 x SO. Currently, JNB, MAN, LGW are done with 2 x SOs, with a push to introduce 2 x SO crewing to all longhaul flights. Therefore, the length of service of an SO upgrading now is irrelevant. Future crewing requires dramatically fewer FOs. Furthermore, the airline is barely growing - new deliveries of A350s (& soon 777-9x) offset by retirement/transfers to KA, and sale/lease back of 23 x 777ERs, the last of which returns to the lessor in 2023. As others have alluded, ‘best guess’ for time to J/FO upgrade is 5 years.
Secondly, 120K or 200K ain’t that much in HK! Better to be poor in your home country, than as a foreign guest worker in another. As a CN, I earn roughly 500K/yr, and I’m exploring options back home for 20 percent of the pay! Such as CX has become.
VS