Well if The Gruaniad is correct and No10 has waded in, our pay is now political and about SoS’ ambitions for the future as anything else. Melchies’ potential COAs for what they’re worth:
1. SoS digs in hard and we all get 3% this year. Following years we get 1% if lucky for several years as punishment, potentially the remainder of this Parliament. Importantly whilst SoS has bought some brownie points with the troops and a few pro- Forces back benchers but his wider reputation is shot and he lacks support for a future bid.
2. SoS compromises and a few lower paid ranks or pinch points get 3% whilst the rest get 1-1.5%. Another sub-inflationary rise irritates the troops but he has maybe preserved some equity in the party and portrays himself as the Squaddies’ Champion by boosting pay for the lowest ranks. Future rises limited but not to the same extent as in COA 1.
3. SoS plays the long game, both for his political ambitions and future pay, and we all get 1.5 - 2%. Although sub-inflationary he claims credit for lifting the 1% pay cap and buys a lot of brownie points for sticking up for Defence whilst also showing himself to be a team player and banks support for a future leadership challenge.
My money is on COA 3. He is a politician after all.