Ah, Greg 47...he of the 'putdown'...It IS a fascinating "hypothesis" and we would like to see some conclusion...whatever the outcome.
We didnt THINK we did better en route to Nauru. we KNEW we did better....with the technological blessing of GPS we were able to get to our destination, WITHOUT having to turn back, and try again later.
I do have decades of 'staring at the dials' and on a solo, SE over water elsewhere...and 'position doubtful' when a nav turn-point island failed to show/ be seen...., some sweat.!! some calculations from a circle of probability, and an alternative heading got me a successful conclusion.
We look forward to another.