Speculation about accidents
It has been stated elsewhere on this forum that “Speculation in advance of the official inquiry may be inevitable but that doesn't mean it's acceptable on a public forum”.
Why? Speculation on this forum concerning just about every other subject under the sun is not frowned upon, in fact it is invited and welcomed. However, when accidents are concerned, it’s a big no-no.
Why not speculate? The accident was a public accident. It is a matter of public discussion. This is a public discussion forum. Therefore we are entitled to discuss the accident here. It is even called a 'Rumour Network'.
Even if we speculate about pilot error, we aren’t trying to castigate the dead pilot(s), or apportion blame, we are merely trying to piece together, for ourselves and no-one else, what MAY have happened, in order to learn from their (possible) mistake(s). There but for the grace of God go I, sort of thing.
It has been commented that journalists cannot be expected to distinguish between informed and misinformed speculation posted on this site. This 'Rumour Network'!
Why not? Surely as professional journalists they ARE expected to verify their sources? And not just print any old twaddle they read or overhear? Why should we have to beware of journalists misconstruing our posts? That’s THEIR lookout. Don’t blame me for what the journalist publishes. If I was the journo who reported that someone had ejected from a Firefly, I’d be feeling a bit silly when my error had been pointed out to me. Pursuing that vein, does everybody believe what’s printed in the newspapers? And, why leave the speculation to the newspapers?
It’s all very well to say authoritatively, “LEAVE the speculation to the professionals.”….However, many here ARE experienced professionals and we all have much to learn by formulating possible reasons for accidents, and by reading and evaluating the speculation and criticism of others.
This little gem has been offered elsewhere on this forum : “to those who speculate and offer unsound opinions I would say one word, DON'T. You probably don't know what you are talking about since you were not on board, and every opinion is based upon pure speculation”.
Don’t? Whyever not? I may very well know what I am talking about. I may even be privy to information that the AAIB is never going to be privy to. So my ‘speculation’ could be based on solid insider knowledge that is never going to be publicised, for whatever reason. In fact, YOU’RE speculating that I’M speculating!
Finally, why should we all shut up and not be allowed to discuss it until many months later when the AAIB report is published? Should thousands and thousands of pilots, professional or otherwise, simply blinker their minds to accidents until they read the report months later? When the memories of the witnesses have faded?
What makes me sick are the ‘having been there, and done that, and known so-and-so, and I have an opinion of what happened but it shall remain private’ -types who are too scared to air their views in front of their peers so that these views may be publicly examined and criticised. If you’re so good and so experienced, your views are obviously valuable and should be aired for the good of all.
Then there’s the condolences crowd. I’m sure Jane Sixpack and the kids really appreciate condolences from some silly nickname on a public forum.
Sure, I agree that accidents are sensitive issues, but that does NOT mean we should shut or minds and gag ourselves because to offer an opinion on the matter is viewed as ‘damned speculation’ and ‘insensitive’.
It is through adversity that we advance.