Originally Posted by
dragon man
“I'm sure the smartest guys in the room have considered all these factors though.”
Yea for sure. Why would I be a cynic? Are these the same people who are going to give American Airlines 1100 customers a week from LAX,JFK,LAX by putting on the 787 that will then stop all the delays the 747 causes?
Not cynical. The data supports it.
An 'alliance' with EK cost Qantas 400,000 passengers in the first year. Incidentally EK gained a 1,000,000 (plus) for no Revenue gain to Qantas.
After five years, a return to Singapore confirms what the data already screamed: Passengers prefer going to Europe via Asia. A five year random walk for what exactly?
With all fleet growth directed at JQ, a replicated cost base, flying more air frames generates only 22% of the revenue Qantas does, yet it flies 48% of the ASK. This is likely a suggestion of over scale.
With headwinds indicating Qantas will hedge next FY into much higher WTI/Brent prices, the $597 million gain on fuel price falls in the 'transformation' FY15 profit is quickly at risk.
Fuel included CASK with the current fleet metrics deplete RASK CASK margin quickly at Qantas, far quicker than competitor airlines.
It is a delicate balance, a gamble that needn't have been taken if Qantas simply did what others prudently did years ago: Replaced four engines for two.
Qantas need a new fleet. Stat