David- just sent you via email a one page pdf plot - table- and assumptions. Did it simply by iteration such that only variable need be entered is range- all based on a max range flight at all times with zero wind. This to establish a plot line from which can be modifed- adjusted based on range effects of headwinds and average speeds based on
mantero pdf report data. This gives the best most optomistic total course from LAE to Howland and return to crash site- based on the non real world asumption t of range needed to fly lae to howland and back to crash site simply being the sum of 2620 plus 2209 = 4829 miles- which is of course well beyond any real world effort of the electra
So with zero wind for a given range say 4000 miles - and a distance of 2200 FROM LAE the distance to crash site would simply be 4000 - 2200 or 1800 miles..
And the distance TO go to Howland would be 400 rounded. - this due to the approx ' offset' of 400 miles via geometry of crash site from LAE on a simple 180 turn at 2200 miles from LAE. The simply sets the overall max and minimum range figures within which she had to pick a turnaround point for whatever reason.
I'll try to figure out how to publish a simple 4 column table here a bit later
My point is to simply establish that at some point, she did have the range to make a return to crash site. More precise calcs could establsh the most probable turnaround point based on geometric course deviations and head winds effects on best range. Other end would be minimum range based on low altitude, headwinds, etc. Range effects could then be adjusted in say 50 mile segments based on headwinds, course deviations from straight line, etc. For example a 90 degree course change to search for say one hour at 150 mph Airspeed- zero windspeed including return to baseline course would decrease range by 150 miles, etc
Conso