Yes, the 380 is supposed to be going to Joburg which is to be the last 747 destination
I have little doubt this was the plan back when the 380 was ordered, but do you reckon it still is?
I’m not sure I see it. The current direction for QF seems to be the pursuit of Yield premiums and the minimization of excess capacity (note the almost complete lack of excess capacity QF currently has from AUS to UK).
The A380 on the JNB route would have 100-150 excess seats every day, based on what I’ve heard the current loads are (happy to be corrected). That’s a very risky ~12 tonne an hour, especially in an environment where some analysts are expecting Oil to start rising toward US$100 a barrel in the next 18 months or so.
I wrote elsewhere what I thought the plan for JNB possibly might be... the 787s replacing the 6 weekly 747s out of Sydney, and the ‘proposed’ 4 weekly 330s out of Perth making up the lost capacity. This would have the added benefit of enabling the destination to be served 10 times a week rather than the current 6, whilst improving connections to/from around the country, where Sydney is a backtrack or inconvenient in comparison. It also allows for an easy reduction in services when the next downturn occurs, without necessarily sacrificing daily access in and out of JNB.
A couple of potential issues with this are sorting out the conflict with Perth Airport over Terminal use, and whether the 787 can reliably take a full load of punters back to Sydney year round (I’d be surprised if it couldn’t), but I think it might be more likely than the 380 taking it over.