@propertee64
I only have "a transcript copy of the original letter which had been notarised" for author Dick Strippel. This was sent to me by Bill Prymak a very well-known Earhart researcher of Denver, Co.. Whether that would be good enough for some people I have no idea. Which brings me to 'range' again...
Delving into the Range.
My recent (and ongoing) delving into the range of the Electra “again”, says it could get back to ENB under certain conditions, the start of those conditionds has to be in meeting all the requirements of the flight up to the 1030 GMT "Ship in sight" call but from there of course everything is an "unknown" except for the cloudy and overcast calls. not being able to get a ”null” on the DF and that she was down at 1000 feet for an hour and also that she was down to a half hour of gas but then comes back on the air after an hour !
What if they just kind of plodded on the way they had been doing but now are heading into a wind which was twice the upper forecast figure of 15 in the 12-15 forecast from Pearl Harbour ?. We know NAURU was reporting a 24 mph wind and Earhart herself said “23 knots” at 8,000 feet and we also know the ONTARIO was receiving 20 Knots from the East. TIGHAR has it that Howland reported 31 mph at 7000 feet on the morning of 2 July (Western Hemi.)
At the ONTARIO, shortly after the 1030 GMT call ( I consider that time to be 1036 GMT, 6 minutes and 12 miles later after the 1030 GMT call) did Noonan take an Astro shot or did he accept the Official US Navy position for the ship or did he get the position within a 10 mile “Circle of Position” ?
Why did they report in at 12,000 feet at 0800 GMT, did they go above cloud layers to avoid turbulence ?
All these things are variables which make it difficult to pin down where they were, particularly at 1912 GMT. Think about “Must be on you but cannot see you.” Must be on you for sure ? Must be on you by now ? We must be there by now ? It is a message of hope.
What do we know of the requirements on getting near to Howland ?
Seeing the sunrise and timing the flash of the sun on rising would tell them how far they were from Howland but if the sky is obscured where they are they will not see that and let us say they needed to be, say, 140 miles from Howland by 1736 GMT, because the sun rose at Howland at 1745 GMT. That would give them time to find on unobscured altitude from which they could see the sunrise and time it for the number of seconds before 1745 GMT.
From the ONTARIO at "my" 1036 GMT; by my working they need need to cover 1132 miles in 7.0 hours which means an average G/S of 162 mph into a headwind which I have in my workings of 32 mph at 10,000 feet and that will require a TAS of 194 mph using 60 USG per hour when Mr. Lockheed is saying they should be using 38 USGPH by that time in the flight.
There is then also a method of “Offset” before reaching Howland but if they don’t know where they are on the trackline, how will that work ? There is the DF which we already know Earhart was asking for on 7500 Kcs but could not get a direction although she did hear the letter A’s .
What do I get as a results ?
Well I get several results. The flight on the MS Excel plot from Take-off to 1030 GMT complies with times, distances, heights, radio calls and locations. It takes hours to work through the MS Excel columns of 100 lbs of gas usage and work the climbs into the flight. I used Cruise Climbs throughout.
Some combinations of height and speed result in splashdowns but I can get them back under certain conditions. For instance, it has to be leaving the ONTARIO at 155 mph TAS at 10,000 feet and at 1912 GMT they are 200 miles from Howland and they can get back to ENB if they climb back up again to 10,000 feet at 140 mph and then 150 mph for the rest. Of course, the wind has to be a tailwind. It takes 32.5 hours. Full details later. I am still working combinations of height and speed. I have not explored higher altitudes than 10,000 for a return but there is a slight fuel saving going higher.
Regards,
David
Last edited by David Billings; 13th May 2018 at 12:09.