Well explained Proxy, although I think its a 10 year step from right to left.
For years the "step" was always just assumed although we found out it was definitely not guaranteed. At some point it was written as part of a "3%" raise which is non-sense. It was exactly as Proxy stated, a yearly increase for service, experience and cost of living. From memory, the years of 05-08 were the only years that we really made significant progress in pay. The "step" plus 8% was the highest I believe. The "crisis" changed all that with the pivotal change in the productivity pay from 78-92 hours in 09. Effectively increasing our workload almost 20%. It subsequently dropped to 88 a few years ago.
They are now on the back side of the curve - parked jets with a dubious reputation as an employer who constantly move the goal posts. We now work forced overtime on the cheap at 90+ hours a month. The 777 being the current workhorse with all the turns.
I suspect they will pay the "step" and enhance the flight pay a la FD with an outside chance of a small increase of maybe 1-2%.
I would also hope they lower the productivity threshold again and increase the overtime pay.
Negotiating your own rate is unlikely with so many of the younger and less experienced new joiners. However, those with solid experience and on similar types why not - much like back in 04 when they first started with DECs, they can certainly cut their own deal. I know one guy back then that made more in basic than the trainer! All the power to them.
In the end, we'll take it and accept it. Or not. As always, interesting times....