Mainly for Greg 47 and also containing Items of Interest…
I am pleased to read that in the least you agree that “there is a good possibility of a wreck in ENB” although you did not define or purport an opinion as to what it may be.
The first attempt at a RTW Flight also ignored the stepped climbs as it is apparent that Earhart ended up at 10,000 feet well before the scheduled 10 hour point of the Lockheed Fuel Plan.
The 2nd RTW flight positive fix at NUKUMANU was hardly going to be a Laser beam to Howland with some 1700 miles to run and the ONTARIO fix with 1272 miles to run would at the extreme only provide a then (for the time) standard 10% error of 127 mile either side of HOWLAND so the flight totally depended on Astro and the Radio TX of 1415 GMT was the first mention of “cloudy and overcast” meaning that any Astro obtained before that time was the last “fix” within a 10 miles “Circle of Position” and we do not know when Noonan took his Astro shots. It is said he was in the habit of shooting stars only once every two to three hours which would not be what I would want.
Our NAV on a GANDER to LAJES flight “at night” was shooting at any and every opportunity he could get with the Radar painting ice rings all over the place and St. Elmo’s Fire dancing around the windscreens. The weather was not nice. Why we were scheduled at night over the Atlantic in 1969, I have no idea, at least the engines were RR…..
So, if Fred missed a shoot during the period 1030 GMT to 1415 GMT and didn’t confirm his ten mile CoP between those times his last shot if at say, 1400 GMT, would lead him to DED-Reckon over some 870 miles giving him an 87 mile possible error either side of HOW. As soon as he goes into DED-Reckoning he would want the speed to be as stable as possible for accuracy purposes but without Astro he will not know the wind or the drift…. A terrible situation.
The U.S. Navy positioned three ships. ONTARIO was only the most useful one for the LAE-HOW run but turned out to be the least capable of assisting the flight and as I said earlier was out of position. The “Officially” required position was 3* 05’ S, 165* 00” E. What the ONTARIO Log shows is the 1000 GMT and the 1100 GMT positions with the ship running at 1.2 Knots and taking the “half” way point results in 2* 59’ 3.12” S and 165* 23’ 11.76” E (From the CD that is with the book “Finding Amelia” by Richard E. Gillespie of TIGHAR)[Data compiled by R Jacobson], therefore the ONTARIO was “North and East" of its’ Official position by 27 Statute Miles.
Incidentally the wind at S.L. that was messing with the ONTARIO was 20 KNOTS not mph so the correct value was 23 mph. At NUK it was 26.5 mph at 8000 feet as per Earhart’s Tx and I have to wind-it up into the low 30’s to get the distances and time to fit the sector NUK-ONTARIO at 12,000 or at 10,000 feet. I am not going to say at this stage the exact value I found on this example of the Excel Plot. It is also of interest that the USCG SWAN positioned halfway between Hawaii and HOW was also suffering from the wind and at one stage “lost” position and had to do a racetrack manoeuvre to get back “on station”, that can be seen from the Log. We also have the example of weird weather in the area by the USN PBY which suffered from icing at low-level and had to turnback for Hawaii.
Do I think they would have looked on ENB in 1937 ? How are, or is, “anybody” going to look on ENB ? From overhead in an aircraft ? Yes, if they get there in a reasonable time and not months after. The jungle swallows just about anything of aircraft size except a 747. Look how many “modern” aircraft are missing in PNG, including around the Rabaul area. I had a lead on General Walker’s B-17E aircraft “The San Antonio Rose” a few years back but can’t do anything about it. Even “more modern” white painted aircraft are difficult to find…. The Talair Bandierante that went missing 20 years ago has not been found as far as I know.
You say, “She was desperate to succeed…” yes, the intention was to get to Burbank by 4th July. One explanation is if she did increase the power and make a G/S of 150 mph.... because the 1300 miles ONTARIO-HOW would be done in 8.6 hours and 10.6 GMT + 8.6 hours = 1912 GMT, the time of the “Must be in you call”…. Provisionally, from the Excel Plot that will still leave some 300+ USG at HOW.
Harry from Heathrow expressed it succinctly…. The flight was “Exploration”
Regards,
David
Last edited by David Billings; 8th May 2018 at 00:56.