We await the learned explanation of the "value of JQ"
In the interim we have considered the impact of the now 99 A320 aircraft commencing delivery and the rotation of the older airframes into Network Aviation. Considering the funding options and delivery timetable it may well be pertinent to consider the fiscal impact of what was reported to be AUD$9.5 billion on Qantas. With a combinaiton of shorter term and longer duration debt, Qantas could conceivably face additional funding costs that didn't appear even 18 months ago. With over two billion expended on share buybacks it is plausible that Qantas lacks requisite funds. Given the usual Airbus funding mechanisms, and the impact of IFRS16 on Qantas' balance sheet it is entirely plausible that new 787 aircraft are deferred as Qantas has committed to delivery of these A320. This makes the role of Network Aviation even more important. If correct, then our source's suggestion of more aircraft to Network seem entirely plausible; they have to go somewhere as they have economic life.Our assessment of JQ is that is suffering from scale deficiency, we await RealityCzech's insightful quantitative analysis as to why this thesis is wrong.
Further there remains the outstanding A380 aircraft (8 in total) we understand the penalties are substantial if Qantas reneges on delivery. We understand Qantas can avoid contractual obligations if the A380 ceases production but otherwise is caught in an enforceable undertaking.
It may well be that Qantas need, but will not get additional replacement efficient aircraft as capital has already been expended.
With contract season open, is it time to blame the staff?