T
he Flight Plot
Remember.... This is a Hypothesis....
I am now up to the 2015GMT point where the "search" over empty water has concluded and the Contingency Plan has to be invoked.
This has taken up a lot of my time because the cranium gears are running in old oil and I had to refresh myself with the formulae to be used and I also had to revisit the Lockheed Report again and satisfy myself that the mistakes on Page 30 had all been found and this involved re-writing the page in MS Excel and placing tha data into another file where the data could be expanded.
The Data:
The data arrived at from LR487 is now as correct as I can get it to three or four decimal places and is tabulated in five tables as Coefficient of lift CL and values of "e", Coefficient of Drag CD, Lift/Drag Ratios, Drag values in pounds and Horsepower Required HPR. If anyone wants this refreshed data (and knows how to use it...) I would consider requests on my email address. Those that know how to use it can then amuse themselves endlessly, as I have done over the last two weeks !
This data was then expanded in MS Excel to give values for Weights in one-hundred pound increments along the column line and for values of Velocity in Mph in five Mph increments on the line numbers which again was expanded into individual Mph single lines when required in the 140 to 160 Mph ranges and as required.
Then I could start the flight plot, using an old example to overwrite the new data.
The Conditions
The Flight Plot is not a direct Great Circle flight. The flight route is LAE-CHOISEUL-NUKUMANU-ONTARIO to the 1912 GMT position, wherever it belongs.
There were two speed callouts of "Making 140" and "Making 150", these also have to be there on the plot at the correct times.
This flight can be done going full power for T.O. but METO or Max. Cruise do not feature in the plot. Fair enough for T.O. but high power climbs are wasteful on gas and do not deliver miles in distance as would a Cruise Climb method.
The obvious picture I see is of the Electra still low over the sea until out of sight as was reported, that does not indicate a high power climb-out to me at all.
METO or Max Continuous do not work on this flight either as I have found out before when doing the plot.
This flight research has to be done to match distances at the correct or near correct times (0518, 0718 and ~1030 GMT). The en-Route times also have to match the Radio call times (0418, 0500, 0518, 0700, 0800, 1030 GMT). The onset of the stronger wind first mentioned at 0718GMT has to be before it was called and is evidenced by the drift to the
PR West of Nukumanu on the sector Choiseul to Nukumanu. The vectored wind is 20 Mph from the East so the Electra must have been crabbing nose right to maintain the track.
In the main we can only follow what we know and what we heard as last mentioned reports, therefore, the wind figure of 23 Knots (26.5 mph) is used and as the mid-year wind drift across the Pacific is East to West and as indicated by the previously mentioned "drift" the wind is assumed to be from the East. At 0800 GMT the radio call made mention of 12,000 feet as the operating altitude so the climb after Nukumanu is made to that altitude and the Electra stays there. It is known that Earhart did fly the Electra at 12,000 feet in th U.S., however, I will run the plot at 10,000 feet also to see what difference it makes.
Density altitude was also taken into considertion on the plot which runs for about 75 columns in Excel. Obviously with Tropic daytime temperatures, the density altitude comes into play. Surprisingly the HP Required figures did not vary all that much.
Hypothetical Results so far.....
So far only to the 1912 GMT Point.
At TOC after the climb out of NUkumanu, the Electra has to be within sight of the USS ONTARIO by 1030 GMT.
Distance to run LAE-HOWLAND through two doglegs is 2627 Sm.
Times and Distance achieved to overhead the USS ONTARIO at 1036GMT after 1357 miles distance through two doglegs. This indicates an Av. G/S of 128 Mph, down 10 Mph on what was considered to be the average required.
Av. G/S at the Ontario over the 427 Sm for the 0718GMT
PR reported (which occurred, probably, at 0700GMT) is only 122 Mph.
After the ONTARIO, the flight is conducted at Best Lift./Drag speeds and the 1912 GMT distance achieved is 2433 Miles leaving 194 miles to run.
Fuel Remaining at 2015GMT is 448 USG
More results in a few days.