Rated De, you painted a scenario on the other thread (QantasLink Crewing Crisis) whereby you predicted the potential for 457 visas to be extended to cover 737 mainline. Let’s explore that here (it would be thread drift on the other thread).
Background: Because Qantas has always insisted on maintaining a separate workplace agreement for mainline 737 pilots (despite various approaches from AIPA in the past to combine the agreements), the negative side-effect for Qantas is that they cannot legally force LH pilots onto the 737. That pesky FWA gets in the way. And, as I understand it, they cannot recruit directly to the 737 due to the Integration Award.
The disparity in pay and conditions make the 737 an undesirable promotion for many LH pilots. Indeed, most LH pilots on 4-engine fleets endure a pay cut to promote to the 737 - extra stripe, less pay.
Despite this, historically, sufficient pilot numbers have always applied - presumably those who put career, responsibility and job satisfaction above money. The negative side effect for pilots is that Qantas haven’t seen a need to improve pay and conditions on the 737. (The positive side effect for pilots is that in general the only pilots on the fleet are those who actually want to be there, which makes it a really happy place to be - but I digress...)
So, to date, the 737 has not had an internal supply shortage. The current 737 crewing shortage is actually due to lack of planning and lack of training resources (caused purely by extremely poor higher level management, having ignored repeated requests and warnings from lower level management. I wish they were somehow accountable for that, but it seems that’s not how big business works - I digress again...).
Looking at the demographics and seniority of the internal 737 pilot supply, it’s getting close to the point where one could forsee the potential for the supply to dry up internally. I’m only talking about F/O’s here - in Qantas, it goes without question that there will always be sufficient internal supply for Captains.
So, Rated De, would that open the door for 457 visas for Qantas mainline 737 pilots? No, it wouldn’t.
It would be just an internal crewing problem that Qantas would need to sort out with the FWA and AIPA.
If they become unable to crew 737 mainline F/O internally, then they would just need to negotiate with the relevant parties how to introduce DE 737 F/O. As long as they are the highest paying narrow-body airline in Australia, how could that supply ever dry up?