weather forecast quality
seen from a pilot perspective for a time window of plus/minus 1hr - suggest to use a more narrow band which has a correlation with minimum available „reserve fuel related flexibility window“ - there are:
- perfect forecasts;
- too optimistic forecasts, sometimes called „political forecasts“;
- too pessimistic forecasts
while too pessimistic forecasts are best friends for the pilot nowadays the aim for cost efficiency favours too optimistic forecasts, leading to things like planning without alternate if destination has two sufficiently independant runways.
since there are pages available allowing an easy comparison between forecasts and actual weather it should be not too difficult to find potentially lethal time frames for arrivals - following now „plus/minus 30‘ around possible arrivals at every minute of the day according to „tempo“ definitions - in forecasts allowing a landing versus metars normally prohibiting a landing.
1. did I miss such a knowledge base eventually existing allready?
2. suggest that we pilots try to set up such a base in „wiki - style“, each starting at own base..
3. even better this quality marker is derived automatically and published for pilots and passengers..