Originally Posted by
DC3 Dave
We know that Stobart talk about taking a modest and humble percentage of London's market. But they fail to mention that the majority of pax (2/3rd's?) fly on aircraft that cannot operate from the airport. This is a real game changer in terms of what needs to be achieved to meet the publicly stated targets Stobart have set.
So if Stobart tell you there's a huge catchment within 25 miles - divide it by 3. Because the other 2/3rd's are not available. And I would suggest that if you divide their 10 million pax pa ambition by 3 - you may get close to a figure that represents the airport's realistic potential.
All the above is true, although whether it is 2/3rd's of potential pax flying on aircraft unable to use SEN would need further research, but an airport's natural catchment (within 25 miles) is only half the story. A very much larger catchment exists outside of that and SEN's share will depend on such things as destinations offered, flight timings & frequency, price and the 'attractiveness' of SEN as a departure airport. This year sees many more destinations on offer, at very competitive prices (partly due to Stobart's strategy of concentrating on market penetration first) and SEN's perceived ease of use & lack of hassle. Those things should go some way to increasing SEN's share of their whole potential market.
Another thing that nearly always gets forgotten is that a large percentage of SEN's pax numbers will originate from many of the destinations airports' catchments. Why? Because SEN is marketed as, and perceived to be, a LON airport so a far larger number of pax will be inbound than would be the case otherwise. In a number of cases these pax will form the majority of the total traffic.
I agree that SEN will never attain 10mppa but it doesn't need to as anything above 4mppa should give Stobart a reasonable return and I cannot see why that figure should not be achievable.