Dick, the costs are calculable and form the basis for insurance premiums. For example the A380 and B747 premiums are calculated on the basis of a fully loaded aircraft crashing at midday in the middle of Manhattan or London times the extremely small probability of it happening.
What we are actually calculating is safety benefit in todays dollars.
Example: Initial ADSB capital costs + installation costs including time lost + annual servicing and recurring costs less time savings in routing, etc, etc. over ten years expressed as a Net present value at a discount rate of say, 5% = X$. it's a simple sum.
Then the second equation Cost of safety times accident rate without ADSB Cost of safety times accident rate with ADSB. If the saving is bigger than the cost of ADSB then its a worthwhile initiative, if not it does not provide benefit commensurate with cost.
Last edited by Sunfish; 14th Apr 2018 at 06:59.