Given the buzz behind the 'Red Aces' media frenzy, the accuracy and standard of recent reporting in Shephard's MTSN has slipped some what, i do hope they are not listening to marketing speak. Also, i thought Red Aces was the name of the Philippine Air Force Display Team flying the Macchi S-211?
Firstly this in February 18, my observations in red:
The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) has initiated a new phase in the Air Support to Defence Operational Training (ASDOT) programme with the down-select of a Leonardo-led team. – for balance this should state that Babcock/Elbit, Thales/Textron/QinetiQ and Cobham/Draken were down-selected after PQQ. BAE Systems, Boeing and LM did not make it through this stage.The ‘Red Aces’ team, comprised of Leonardo, Top Aces (formerly Discovery Air Defence Services) and Inzpire, is yet to declare which platform it will put forward for the requirement and is expected to be joined by other consortia pursuing the contract. Other contenders for the programme include a bid from Saab which has offered an aggressor variant of its Gripen C aircraft. Modifications to the aircraft would include replacing the platform’s live weapons with simulated missile capabilities and the installation of the company’s PS-05 Mk IV radar. – Saab are not formally part of any consortia that made it through PQQ, the best that can happen here is either a Dry Lease or Purchase, either of which will be too expensive given the budget for the program that has no Capital.Following the collapse of a Babcock-led team in July 2017, which included Cobham Special Missions and Draken International, Babcock announced it had formed a new partnership with Elbit Systems. The two companies already have a history of collaboration, working together on the MoD’s
Military Flying Training System (MTFS) programme.
– The background here is wrong, Babcock walked away from Draken/CAE team before announcing its partnership with Elbit in Q4 2017. Cobham and Draken signed their agreement at RIAT in July 17. While the Leonardo team is yet to declare its chosen platform, the possibilities include the company’s M-346 training aircraft or options from Top Aces’ fleet, such as the IAI Westwind 1124, Dornier Alpha jet and McDonnell Douglas A-4N aircraft. Top Aces has also received approval from the US Department of Defense to acquire ex-US Air Force F-16s.
– The M346 is way too expensive, just look at Poland’s acquisition. Top Aces HAS NOT received any approval to acquire F-16 aircraft, they have no Third-Party Transfer (TPT) for those defense articles off of the Department of State, it is also not in the US Foreign policy interest to enable the re-transfer to a Canadian Private Entity. Talking of those aircraft, they put the better part of C$34MM down on ex-IDF F-16 Block 10 acquired under Peace Marble I or IV back in 2014. This is where it gets interesting as this was the Debenture holders investment into Discovery Air Defence Services back in 2013 which they will never get back given Clairvest’s acquisition of Discovery Air, its splitting off of Discovery Air Defence Services from the parent Discovery Air which it saddled with all the debt, hence the name change back to Top Aces in Feb 18 and the recent protection order/restructuring against Discovery Air. The pending legal case in Canada could be interesting. Leonardo’s Airborne and Space division will leverage the company’s simulation background to further its programme effort, while Top Aces boasts on-going contracts to supply fast-jet airborne training services to the Canadian, German and Australian armed forces. – The German competition is due to be re-competed (for a Jan 2020 start). ASDOT will replace the UK’s current live air training activities, provided by Cobham, which use the company’s Falcon 20 aircraft and supply target towing and EW/ECM facilities and airborne threat training. Fast-jet aggressor services are currently provided by Serco. – This has not be been the case since 2013 when 736 NAS reformed due to the shortcomings of the service provision by Serco. The contract is expected to be worth £750 million over 15 years, with the award anticipated for in mid-2019. Service provision is scheduled to commence in January 2020 with full operating capability six months later. – Again, this is not accurate, see below from the updated Tender Notice: Proposed/Estimated ITT Issue Date: 29/06/2018. Proposed/Estimated ITT Return Date: 28/09/2018. Proposed Issue Date of Contract: 31/03/2020. Proposed Completion Date of Contract: 31/03/2035
Then this article in March 18, my observations in red:
Discovery Air Defence Services, originally known as Top Aces, has reverted to its former name. Although trading as Discovery Air Defence until 1 February, the Top Aces brand was still used in the US. – See reason why above.The company said that it has ‘flown 68,000-plus accident-free flight hours and is the exclusive adversary air provider to the Australian, Canadian, US and German armed forces’.The next couple of years will be important for adversary air or ‘red air’ service providers in that the US Air Force, US Navy, US Marine Corps and UK MoD all have major requirements. In the US, the US Air Force now plans to contract an additional 5,600 hours on top of the 42,000 hours specified in its RFI that was issued to industry in July 2016. – this is not entirely true, the 5,600hrs is for Nellis ADAIR Phase 2 starting in October 2018 to prevent a capability gap until the larger CAF ADAIR Program, that now includes Contractor Close Air Support of some 11,500hrs, comes online in Fiscal Year 2022 which is iro $6BN over 10 years.Known as AdAir, the US Air Force programme is expected to be worth $280 million in the first base year. The contract will then likely call for annual extensions for four years. – this is Neliis ADAIR Phase 2, and $280MM is over the 5 years starting in Fiscal Year 19. ‘2018 is a very exciting year for Top Aces and the global adversary air industry,’ said Paul Bouchard, president. ‘This rebrand builds on our proud history [and] it aligns our geographical brands into one to provide the world’s most advanced adversary air solutions to prepare Western aircrews for today’s new threats.’ – Then why has Garry Venman left? The US AdAir programme calls for an aircraft that is capable of M=1.5, has a radar and is fitted with countermeasures, and that specification requires competitors to source 4th generation combat aircraft. – Again, not entirely accurate, there are 3 categories of aircraft attributes with capability exchange criteria. It’s far more complex than this and real thought has been put into it by the USAF. Do you really need an aircraft that can do an instantaneous turn of >15deg/s sec at 15,000ft or can you achieve the perceived advantage by other means?The company currently flies A-4N Skyhawks and AlphaJets (pictured) and so is now ‘preparing to introduce the next generation of adversary services using advanced 4th generation supersonic aggressor aircraft’. Shephard understands these to be former US DoD F-16s. – Again inaccurate, they are ex-IDF Block 10s of the Peace Marble I or IV batch. They’ve been marketing this for 5 years now and its getting boring.
One of Top Aces competitors for the US AdAir requirement, US-based Draken International, has recently signed a deal with Denel to procure 12 Atlas Cheetah supersonic fighters; nine single-seat Cheetah C and three tandem-seat D variants.This follows an earlier order By Draken for 22 Mirage F1s previously used by the Spanish Air Force and an order for 63 Mirage F-1s from ATAC in September last year. The US red air requirements are going to be highly contested programmes. It is clear that companies such as Top Aces, Draken International and ATAC are now jockeying for position for a head start in what will be a very tight race. – No mention of Tactical Air Support Inc which is surprising.