For greg47...
Agreed, absolutely and definitely impossible to go out towards Howland, get to the vicinity, not see it and turn around and reach East New Britain at Cruise Power.
"Vicinity" means: The area near or surrounding a particular place.
"Near" means: A short distance away.
Neither of the two words defined above apply to the
Hypothesis put out by the website written by me.
Neither does using Cruise Power for the whole flight apply to the intent of the
Hypothesis.
The
Hypothesis is all about explaining "how" it would be possible to get the Electra back to ENB.
Take off Power, Cruise Climb power and Cruise Power as used in the Hypothesis do apply up until the time that Noonan discovered that the wind was hgher then forecast. That realisation came when the Electra was turned onto the direct heading for Howland after it was discovered that NUKUMANU was not dead ahead but lay off to their right as they had been blown to the West of Nukumanu by the abeam wind. This resulted in Earhart giving a Lat/Long Tx for a
PR at 0718GMT after Noonan had worked out what had caused the error.
At that point after the knowledge that the wind was 23 Knots (26.5 mph) and more than double the low end forecast (12mph) and approaching double the high end forecast (15 mph), the
"Crew" would have to decide, whether to turn back for LAE or whether to continue towards Howland. At that point with around 1680 miles to run, their ETA changes from an ETA of an original FP time of 18.5 hours or 1830 GMT to an FP of 20.5 hrs with an ETA at 2030 GMT because they had only averaged 127 mph to that point. The new ETA therefore has a 2 hours difference.
Therefore, if they are to make it to Howland and still have a reserve for The Contingency Plan, they must conserve FUEL. This logical process is nowadays termed as "Thinking Ahead..."
At 0800GMT, Harry Balfour heard, "On course for Howland at 12,000 feet".
In making the Hypothesis from Top of Climb at what I used (a TOC of 10,000 feet) I then used the Electra Best Lift Drag ratio speed for the AUW of the Electra in short periods of time in a MS Excel file to use that Best L/D speed to conserve fuel. The Best Lift/Drag Ratio attained by the Electra is around 12:1, not bad for a 1936 aircraft.
This then resulted in no real increase in speed because the Velocity for Minimum Drag (Vmd) used in conjunction with Best Lift/Drag as a ratio results in the Electra actually decreasing speed as the AUW decreases, this has to be done to maintain the Best Lift/Drag ratio... hence the power used is very gradually reduced to maintain the Best L/D speed. Speed decreases, as power decreases thus "conserving fuel".
Note and I repeat... I used an altitude of 10,000 feet from the 0800GMT TOC as the maintained height from that point up until TOD (Top of Descent).
I used 10,000 feet as the generally accepted "Oxygen required limiting altitude." I am now considering whether Earhart, in calling 12,000 feet at TOC stayed there at that Altitude where conservation of fuel would impove slightly. It is known that Earhart did fly the Electra at 12,000 feet in the U.S. (Example NYC to Phoenix). It may also be that she moved to 12,000 because of the night-time cloud layer... we do not know, because she never said.
Once again Greg, you have not correctly read what the Hypothesis says.
There may therefore be a case for reviewing the fuel used at 12,000 feet from 0800 GMT up until TOD; 1912 GMT; 2014 GMT and what it would look like in fuel remaining at the point where the Electra was overhead TABITEUEA. All as a
HYPOTHESIS of course. Don't expect a quick answer, it does take time to get the old brain working...
Please run your own numbers also and see what you get.