One of the sources I was talking to was an engineer from Mercedes Benz. Even Mercedes are predicting the take-up of electric vehicles to be huge and are forecasting a decline in oil consumption
Naturally he is. The engineering may well work, but securing the rare earth metals is a problem. Leaving power generation to someone else a classic 'externality'. Elon Musk does the same thing. Any analysis of TSLA's cash position shows that there is a large gap between talk and success.
My main question is will the stable oil prices give a new life to the quads.
Your question has two answers. Yes it gives life to existing four engine aircraft. A depreciated mid life 747 with low fuel prices can and does make a good return. The second part of the answer requires an analysis of the WTI futures. There appears a little 'backwardation', however analysis from the manufacturers is
predicated on higher oil or a contango situation, wherein the four engine aircraft (dependent upon age) as prices rise become progressively less viable.
With these scenarios it is our opinion that four engine production lines will slow and cease.
Perhaps an indicator of the 'value' of the four engine aircraft was the Etihad loss of $1.9 billion. There were write downs of fleet totaling $1 billion and some of their 'investments' but effectively the bigger aircraft were reduced to a near zero book value reflecting the realisable value in the second hand market. Inter woven here though is the politics and management culture in the Middle East.
Having said all that, if your brand can generate a good RASK and you can lower your fuel included CASK only the foolish would not choose to grow Operating Margins by spending a lot less on fuel by equipping the fleet with long range twins. Which is why most airlines have already do so.
Qantas need a new fleet