Amelia Earhart PNG Theory

[David Billings]

Greg47

“David i dont understand how she would be transmitting that they were running a north south line or words to that effect and was short of Howland. Noonan,had been Panams Pioneer navigator. He could acurately plot his westing and the actual wind with sextant shots.He would have run an air plot. It was common to lay off north or south so there would be some certainty about the direction to take when in the area. You are obviously dedicated and its a wondefull interest. In life ive seen many examples of a mistake in analysis and then facts down the track shaped to fit . Ive had glaring examples as a pilot until you go back and start again . Good luck keep it up”

[DB: My bolding in the above paragraph.]

With all due respect, Captain…. I think there are a few things you do not understand.

You seem to have completely glossed over the main intent of my last post concerning the identity of “what was seen” in 1945 and gone back to the major part of what we do not know about the flight.

I have lots of patience so I’ll try again and I will stick to the navigational side and radio receptions side of the drama which is what, seemingly, you are stuck on.

We can both agree that the Electra did not land at Howland for that is a given. From that certainty then, because the flight depended on Navigation by Astro, we can say that 'something' went wrong and that 'something' had to do with the navigational aspect of the flight. That is not to say that Noonan was incompetent, that is to say that there was some obstacle to the Navigation which prevented Noonan from directing the course which would reach Howland.

That means there was a problem.... and the first intimation that there was a problem came during the night-flying period at 1415 GMT when only USCG Chief Radio Operator Leo Bellarts heard “Cloudy and overcast”.

That time was a scheduled time of transmission by Earhart but we have no idea from what time the ‘Cloudy and overcast’ conditions had started because previous to that transmission there had been no reception from Earhart since 1030 GMT and that reception was by NAURU, not the USCG ITASCA. At that 1030 GMT call heard by Nauru, there was no mention of Weather.

At 1515 GMT, Itasca again heard “Overcast”

At 1624 GMT Itasca heard “Partly Cloudy”

Note: 1624 GMT is 4:54 Local time at Howland, possibility of Astro Navigation is diminishing as daylight spreads across the sky.

At 1744 GMT Itasca heard “Want bearing on 3105 on hour will whistle in mic”
At 1745 GMT Itasca heard “About 200 miles out. Approximately. Whistling now.

Note: At 1745 GMT it it 6:15 AM Local on Howland (their time of sunrise).

At 1815 GMT Itasca heard “Please take bearing on us and report in half hour- about 100 miles out..."

Note: In half an hour their G/S from the two Tx's (above) is 200 mph into what we consider is a headwind.

At 1912 GMT “Must be on you but cannot see you” etc..

Does anywhere in the transmission sequence above indicate that they were positive about their actual position on their track line ?

The request for a bearing could indicate that Noonan was NOT directing an obvious course off to the "north or south" of his trackline in order to do a pre-computed "Sunline" approach to Howland from the North or from the South. Rather, to me, it indicates that Noonan was indeed unsure of his position on the trackline due to not being able to gain Astro through the night because of the "Cloudy and Overcast" conditions previously reported in the Tx's.

It is correct to assume or is true, that the 157-337 would indicate the use of a Pre-computed Sunline through Howland in TRUE degrees but that sunline existed at 0615 Local. They, are late. Their Magnetic steer on approaching Howland is 068 degrees Magnetic. The wind forecast was from the NE. If Noonan had the Electra steering 067 degrees Magnetic to lay-off for wind, then a 90 degree turn to follow a searching "Line of Position" would be 157-337 Magnetic.

David