By the looks of things, the JetsGoHolidays deal shows that BHD management are simply grasping at straws and will take whatever they can get their hands on.
The issue is that time is running out for BHD management to find new airlines and routes.
Back in 2014, when Brussels Airlines, KLM and Vueling announced they were commencing flights from BHD, BFS handled just 1,478,799 more passengers than BHD. It seemed entirely feasible at the time that BHD would soon break the 3 million mark, and that both airports would end up handling roughly the same amount of passengers. It made sense at the time for KLM et al to operate from BHD.
However, fast forward to 2017, and BFS managed to handle 3,276,706 more passengers than BHD. The gap is continuing to widen; in 2018, BFS will handle roughly 6.3 million passengers (up 450,000). BHD on the other hand will struggle to surpass 2.6 million. By 2019, BFS will be handling 4 million more passengers that BHD, unless BHD management can attract new routes and airlines.
Since 2014, BFS passenger numbers have increased by 1,802,608. BHD passenger numbers on the other hand have increased by just 4,701.
2014; 4,033,944 vs 2,555,145 = 1,478,799
2015; 4,391,307 vs 2,692,713 = 1,698,594
2016; 5,147,546 vs 2,665,139 = 2,482,407
2017; 5,836,552 vs 2,559,846 = 3,276,706
2018; 6,300,000 vs 2,600,000 = 3,700,000
2019; 6,600,000 vs 2,600,000 = 4,000,000
*2018 and 2019 figures are estimates based on the number of scheduled seats for sale, previous load factors, and previous passenger figures. BFS error +/-100,000 pax, BHD error +/-50,000 pax
BHD is being dwarfed by BFS, and this will have a huge impact on the future of BHD.
- New airlines coming to Belfast will likely choose the much larger BFS, which by 2020 could be handling as many as 7 million pax annually. More passengers means more revenue for the airport, which will allow for expansion and improvements to the terminal building, thus making BFS even more attractive to airlines. This will be compounded by the increased urgency to establish improved transport links between Belfast and BFS. BHD on the other hand will likely remain below the 3 million passenger mark.
- If BHD's passenger numbers continue to fall or stagnate, there will be increased pressure to look at the feasibility of the airport, and there will undoubtedly be calls to close the airport and move all operations to BFS.
- BHD management have been unable to persuade new airlines to remain at the airport, thus making it even more difficult for BHD to secure new routes and airlines in the future.
At this stage, Lufthansa Group is probably a lost cause for the airport. The performance of BHD-BRU was to determine the likelihood of further LH Group routes to the airport, and Eurowings are looking at BFS for their potential Belfast operations, having already rejected BHD. It seems highly plausible that if Eurowings start operations from BFS, potential Lufthansa flights to FRA or MUC would operate to BFS as well.
The failure of Vueling's BCN service has hampered plans for Iberia Express to operate BHD-MAD, and Aer Lingus' recent capacity slashes suggests that it is unlikely that BHD will receive good news from from IAG in the foreseeable future. Honestly, once the lock on Aer Lingus' LHR slots expires, I predict they will axe BHD completely from their route network.
I think that BHD management should be focusing their attention on Air France/KLM. As I've mentioned several times before, KLM have said on numerous occasions that they want to operate BHD-AMS x2-3 daily, and that they want to add more destinations (i.e. Paris CDG) from BHD in the medium term.
I would love to ask Ms. Best and her colleagues what's going on with regards to KLM. What confuses me is that in 2016 (the year KLM revealed they wanted a second daily BHD service), KLM had two x1 daily F70/E175 UK routes; AMS-BHD and AMS-INV. Passenger numbers on both routes in 2016 were identical, however INV received a second daily service in 2017, and in 2018 will be operated by the B737. BHD on the other hand has seen no increase in capacity since the route's inception. KLM have said time and time again that yield on AMS-BHD is excellent, so why on earth is nothing happening?
It is baffling that BHD management seem to be doing little to secure the future of what will be the airport's busiest international route in 2018.