Originally Posted by
piratepete
My take on this accident, sadly is INEXPERIENCE plus CONFUSION equals DISASTER.
Not rushing to judgement is quite commendable but do you not feel there is a level of confusion which should simply never occur when flying a fully functional and instrumented aircraft during daylight hours with relatively clear sight of the ground and moderate haze?
Adopting a track to enter a traffic pattern for runway 20 when cleared to land 02 may be accepted as confusion.
Entering the left downwind when ATC clears you for the right (then right, then right, then left, then right) downwind is easily accepted as confusion, especially when ATC seem to be clearing you for whatever they guess you're planning to do next anyway.
Then they receive and understand 'cleared to hold?' They readback 'right orbit' then proceed to steadily lose height in the orbit until - I'd guess - an EGPWS warning shakes them out of their fugue state. They abort the orbit into an approximate (climbing, of course!) left base leg, overshoot the runway they apparently can't see (probably due to being too high), 180 left turn into... well, it's high key, isn't it? Followed by the usual which turns out not to work so well in an ATR.
I see a lot of confusion in the initial stages, but in the later stages I see a certain 'I know exactly what to do, now I just have to get the airplane to do it' certainty of purpose that's something quite different entirely and much more dangerous. Confused people aren't dangerous if they know they're confused. They hold, they put the autopilot on, they pause. The danger starts when people suddenly snap out of their confusion, believe they're in a familiar and tolerable situation and begin a tactical approach from high key. In an ATR. Wouldn't you say?