The article suggests CX's business model is unsustainable. I think the evidence is in that in fact that is accurate. The tragedy is that the management are myopic and delusional, feeling that somehow attacking their staff will solve their problems. I would argue that it will make the problem worse, much worse. You only have to see how the situation has driven hundreds of pilots to make plans to leave (and many have already left). The cost to the airline's operational integrity is already being felt, and the replacement training costs are ramping up exponentially, far in excess of any 'savings' they had planned on. The problem isn't staff costs (US carriers, QF, others manage to record record profits with much higher average staff costs and higher tax environments), but an inept, inbred and nepotistic senior management mentality that no longer is suited to such a dynamic and ruthless industry. Instead of focusing on expanding and dominating HK, they focused inwards on their staff, in an almost paranoid and myopic fashion. In doing so, they completely missed the rapid growth and entrenchment of serious competitors (HKA and HKE), who have now accumulated so many slots in HK that CX can't expand, and thereby have lost control of the local market. Without expansion, they are doomed, as the extremely low cost carriers in HK, and outside competition will erode and suffocate them, as is in fact now happening.
The most valuable asset they have are their (now lost) once dedicated employees. They held the secret to eventual success (and in fact did provide the foundation of the company's previous success). Now, you have your own employees quietly and deliberately undermining you from the inside out. They don't care anymore, as they have other viable career options. You have alienated the senior staff (epic own goal with the 13th month decision, resulting in every Captain now working against you, every flight), disillusioned the middle ranks who have concluded that they must establish a career elsewhere (HKPA, and it's woeful lifestyle liability for the employee and family as just one reason amongst many), and additionally management have undermined the safety and reputational status of the airline, which is now starting to be established in the press and the general mindset of the HK traveling public. It is a tragic and noteworthy case of business failure. It is doubtful that CX can be saved now. The exodus of skilled staff is probably now unstoppable, particularly when the realisation of the death of CX becomes unassailable. Further, the sheer cost of training woefully inexperienced replacements will cripple the budget of the airline, and never overcome the ever decreasing levels of experience and safety inherent in CX's traditional demographic. In fact, those costs will far outweigh the supposed cost of the ARAPA staff and other higher cost employees (and without expanding bases, don't bleat to us how high our 'costs' are).
The "death spiral" has begun (long predicted), and it is probably too late. Particularly in light of the fact that the HK Govt is fed up with CX, foreign competitors are attacking and the local competition is now of a size and power that will be almost impossible to counter. CX is dead. Rather like the "Walking Dead", there may be physical movement, but in fact it is already too late to save. Eventually we will be reading articles that describe either a sudden collapse, or at best a takeover or break-up. Ironically, the only thing that may survive is the freighter network ("no money in freight"!!). It really doesn't matter. The only thing of any importance to an individual is their own career and the security of their families, and that now clearly lies elsewhere with a different airline.
Ironically, the last best chance of saving CX is for the Swires to go to the HKAOA and offer a proper package to their pilots. Respectful, unambiguous, legally enforceable, that provides security of housing, salaries, rostering, seniority and fleet transfer (you know, all the things that most other airlines provide). Sadly, our management, the ones who got us into this mess are the least capable of seeing that that is what it will take (at a minimum) to get things turned around (oh, while your are at it RH, install a DFO we can respect, who actually knows the first thing about aviation, and doesn't quote mass murderers in her weekly newsletters). Without your technical staff working WITH you instead of AGAINST you on every flight every day, no management 'strategy' will be successful. If you don't come to the table with such an offer, you will find that nearly every pilot in this company will not be worrying about CX and her "legacy". They will safely watch the destruction of this once great airline from a distance. It is over.
(final observation: if you p*ss away almost a BILLION usd in mindless fuel hedge gambling, there is very little the staff can do to help, but we can make it MUCH worse if you goad us too far...and that is what you have done. You can start by paying the 13th month into my account)
Last edited by Trafalgar; 13th Mar 2018 at 05:26.