Nobody knows, but there has always been a shortage since Air Europe went down, except nobody admitted it. But based on past experience and the usual not thinking past the next lunchtime, I think it would be that. But you're right, this one could last a bit longer based on the projections from the manufacturers.
As far as we are concerned, that's future pain. You won't get a job without a licence anyway so concentrate on that first, although you are quite right to be concerned.
Phil