Originally Posted by
Rated De
The data sets we have reviewed
suggest strongly that an economic downturn will not do a great deal to address the demographic structural shortage.
Pilots in Australia, particularly those at Qantas with a contract up for negotiation may want to quietly stop and ask themselves:
- Is Australia any different to every other Western economy?
- Has management quietly got 457 visas for a reason of controlling supply?
- Is the Network announcement designed to 'spook' pilots?
- Is Jetconnect to 'spook' pilots?
- Has recruiting and adversarial IR/HR been predicated on unlimited supply?
If the answer to these questions is that management may have finally realised a shortage is real and sustained, they may be playing for a long contract term, and as few concessions as possible. After all IR/HR has been one way traffic for 30 years.
The Achilles heel for Qantas is that commuting contracts where living in Australia and working away, a bit like miners did a few years ago is a real possibility. Forward strategic thinking Asian carriers are already addressing this, contacts suggest very lucrative commuting contracts are imminent.
Take away the Australian basing and Qantas is at best a pick among a few airlines.
The biggest thing (although unlikely) that could completely reshape our aviation industry and create a serious shortage very quickly would be commuting contracts and/or Australian crew bases for any of the ME3. If EK were willing i'm sure there would be plenty of Aussies willing to jump into an EK A380 if they could be based in Australia.