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Old 3rd Mar 2018, 04:39
  #74 (permalink)  
V-Jet
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: S33E151
Posts: 1,088
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Explaining this really does seem like explaining the value of a good forward defensive stroke to a woman, or using fossil evidence of the Evolutionary process to a Creationist. As no one has seen an ape turn into a human, some will never see the possibility. And so it is with Jetstar.

A far better explanation has been verbalised (in writing no less by Arthur above) who has in one genius sentence gone straight to the nub of the issue in a way I could only have dreamed of.

'Yes, we have always been at war with Eurasia'
Clearly Arthur is well versed in the principals of IngSoc. Or is that QanSoc? QanSoc has a nice ring to it and explains the problem PERFECTLY. To believe Jetstar (particularly) International has actually netted dollar one does require a skilled appreciation of Newspeak, particularly Doublethink. All disseminated from the Corporate Campus (Inner Party) through HR - obviously the Ministry of Truth.

For those of us not so well educated in the principals of Newspeak and can't see 4 fingers held up as anything but 4 fingers (instead of anything The Party says it to be) we just can't see the things the way the Inner Party does.

Outside the Inner Party/Corporate Campus; Jetstar International is seemingly at best struggling and at worst a basket case being propped up by the parent airline that's been shrunk to greatness. It has been gifted routes, lounges, booking systems, maintenance & hangars - you name it, it's either been given or piggybacked off the parent.

To Outer Party members, every single question levied in support of Jetstar can be rebutted by asking the same question in return. So many very serious questions are deliberately NOT answered by Qf/JQ management that it begs the question why? As any parent of a child of even two could tell you - questions are deliberately not answered accurately when they cannot be honestly answered without lying or incriminating oneself. If only the Alan Joyce problem (even seeing that name makes me queasy) could be solved as simply as sending him to bed without milk and cookies!

It is irreconcilable to thinking people that the airline was created out of thin air, for free. The figures for startup have been bandied around as between $2b and $3b.

Keith generously provided 'net' figures (although created by the Inner Party of '2+2=whatever they want' fame), but accepting those as 'genuine' and a startup cost in the middle of the two figures ($2.5b) cost, we come up with a loss over 10 years of some $800m. And as many have pointed out that's in addition to such triumphs as ReqQ, JHKG, JJapan, JPacific etc etc etc (etc etc etc etc etc etc).

Taking that further we add the loss to the mid figure startup cost of $2.5b and we have a $3.3b OPPORTUNITY cost to Qantas - again, that's aside from all the 'freebies' JQ gets on a day to day basis.

As far as my notes make out, in 2005 (TEN years AFTER the 777 flew) the QF International Fleet consisted of:
12 x 747 Classics
30 x 767
32 x 744
Roughly 23,200 seats available to sell.

In 2018 (almost TWENTY FIVE years AFTER the 777 flew) the Qf International Fleet consists of:
12 x 380
10 x 744
3 x 787
26 x 330
Roughly 16,500 seats available to sell.
Note that ALL 747's are being 'replaced' with aircraft with 138 fewer seats.

Looking at that 'Post Transformation' Fleet another way paints a similar, but slightly different picture. For EVERY SINGLE HOUR the QF International Fleet is in the air, it is burning around 167,000kgs of Jet-A/A1 MORE than almost ANY of it's 777/787 competitors. This is INSANE.

Qantas has therefore been shrunk in terms of seats by 40% while it has also managed have INCREASED it's fuel burn in relative terms compared to it's competitors by some 167,000kgs for EVERY, SINGLE HOUR it is operating.

We know $2.5bish has effectively been invested in the personal pockets of Qantas' long suffering and undernourished Management Team (The Inner Party) and it would seem roughly $2.5b has been invested into a group that has lost over ten years $800m.

Had nearly $5b been put into 777's and 787's (sorry - Gamechanger's! JQ has 787's, only Qantas International has been blessed with Gamechangers) instead of $5b into personal pockets and a group that looks like it's lost $800m then just imagine what it could have been generating?

The we get to debt. 1992, Qf had zero debt and $1.5b in the bank. 2005 I understand debt was around 50-55% and now it's 70-75%. As I wrote previously, I'd get that if the fleet was efficient and there were enough of them, but it is as far from efficient as you could almost imagine and will soon be even smaller than the 40% 'Transformational' shrinkage.

The object of business is to charge as much for something as you can. I still do NOT understand why you would seemingly twist yourself in knots, load your company up with massive debt and extra duplicated services to charge around 40% LESS than your primary product. Witness that famous 'Jetstar makes more money selling muffins'. This seems to me completely nuts!

Certainly to me (admittedly an Outer Party Member actively committing Thoughtcrime on a daily basis) it looks like the Great Transformation has simply shrunk the airline 40%, increased it's relative (to competitors) fuel usage by 167,000kgs per HOUR and hugely increased it's debt whilst at the same time massively enrich it's genius Corporate Campus Inner Party Members.
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