Judd:
"Would it be possible for you to draw for Pprune readers a rough map showing the original planned Lockheed track from Lae to Howland island, etc..."
On the
very first introductory page of the website, there is a diagram of the route that I consider was taken and the point where I explain in the Hypothesis side of the project where the turnback occurred. NAURU and TARAWA are marked on that map as are other places.
Use that as a guide and follow the route on Google Earth or Google Maps...
Most people these days have Google Earth or Google maps.
I find that most writers just draw a 'straight line' from LAE to HOWLAND and have done with it, but for a heavily-laden aircraft the first obstacle would be the eastern end of the SARAWEGED range to the East of LAE. This tail-end of the range goes to 3000 feet or more on this 'straight line'. Earhart was still low over the sea of the HUON Gulf until out of sight...
For the original intended route I would take it that Earhart would have Fred Noonan plot the Great Circle route, it being the shortest. Once Earhart had rounded the northern coast of the Huon Gulf, the way would be clear on a GC Route to head out on track for the southern coast of New Britain Island and make landfall around the GASMATA area. Then the aircraft would coast out again headed for the BUKA Passage, the small straight between BOUGAINVLLE Island and BUKA Island.
Once through there it is open sea until NUKUMANU Island, except for a glimpse of the MORTLOCK Atoll on the left hand side.
However I am convinced that they did not go that way due to the report of a LOW off the S.E. coast of New Britain Island right on that track. There would be a reason not to go that way in bad weather for Mount BALBI is in the area and it goes to 8,500 feet.
From the 0518 GMT call it is apparent that Earhart did not go on the GC Route initially as the call indicated she was over CHOISEUL Island, after that she dog-legged up to NUKUMANU Island to pick up the original intent of the GC Route. See the green line on the map on the website.
From NUKUManu the GC Route is taken all the way towards HOWLAND. Next Landfall would be TABITEUEA Island, then Howland.
My Hypothesis of where they turned back after the Line Search, is based on the Groundspeeds that can be worked out as best we can from the Radio calls. The wind at NUKUMANU Atoll was recorded at 26 mph by Earhart "without a direction" but as I explain in the website with a vector diagram, it had to be from the East and was the reason why Noonan's navigation ended up 20 miles to the West of Nukumanu. Seasonal winds in July across the Pacific are from the East.
The wind at Howland on the morning of their intended arrival was recorded as 31 MPH at 7000 feet from the East.
David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com