Greg47:
Post-loss Radio calls
I am aware that there were post-loss radio calls heard and the only four I am interested in are the one reported by Fred Goerner and the three calls heard by Nauru and referred to as the “Nauru Intercepts”. Goerner’s report is in his book and in my copy it is on Page 308 where he says Nauru heard Earhart on 6210 Kcs, saying, “Land in sight ahead”. The three calls came much later and were unintelligible but: “…it sounded like the same voice heard the night before but without hum of plane in the background.“ Again, all this is comprehensively discussed on the website.
You ask “why did she turn back” ?
Please read the website, Part 7., first subject. There you will find an explanation of “The Contingency Plan.”
Purposely “laying Off” before reaching the target distance.
Also sometimes called “The Chichester Method” when it was used by Chichester to navigate to Lord Howe Island. We are not sure if Noonan did employ this method of finding Howland due to the fact that he was aware of the supposed DF availability said to be there. Maybe he was expecting a full Adcock Array but all that was there was a portable set with flat batteries. I tend to think that this laying-off method was not used and instead they were attempting a straight-in approach to Howland. Why do I think that ? It is because she asked ITASCA for a bearing.
The DAKAR Error
A perfect example of Earhart’s tendency to trust her sensing as against trusting her Navigator is the decision by her to turn left instead of right at the approach to DAKAR. As you know I do believe on the groundspeeds attained that the Electra was well short of Howland at 1912 GMT. I think that Earhart took it upon herself to make that “Must be on you” call. I do not believe Noonan would have said to her that they were “…on Howland”, I think her impatience made her think they were there. As I explain in the website, the call Georner referred to in his book is feasible if they turned around for The Gilberts and were seeing the Tabiteuea Islands (or Nonouti Atoll) at time 2200 GMT which fits with Goernor’s “nearly two hours later” as when Nauru heard the call after the supposed last call at 2014GMT, (actually one and three-quarter hours later. which is “nearly two hours”)
Fuel
You are entitled to calculate what you think was the fuel state when as you say, they arrived close to Howland. To me as an ex-Flight Engineer, if I had a Contingency Plan I would want to know what the minimum fuel holding was that I could go down to before I invoke that Contingency Plan. The very word Contingency means that there is thought of an alternate in case there gets to be a problem. No pilot or crew leaves terra firma with the idea that they are going to die except for those nutcases who do commit suicide and in some cases, “take others with them”…. Those are the exceptions. I have had it said to me by quite a few pilots (because I have asked them), “What would they do if they still had fuel", and they all say, “I would keep going until I had to put it down”, (in the sea or on the land). So, if you have a Contingency Plan, it follows that you have contingency fuel. All Airline Pilots today carry “alternate fuel”, and every sensible Private Pilot does too.
Last edited by David Billings; 26th Feb 2018 at 23:50.