The MAN route is fairly evenly split between BHD/BFS. Any pax flying FR will be a mixture of BE and EZY plus pax they attract themselves through really low fares so yes the likelihood is BHD will see a decline, neither EZY or BE will drop fares as low as FR, but its worth remembering £12.99 is not a sustainable price point long term and eventually such fares will fizzle out, either because they grow enough business or because they cut the route or reduce frequency, but one thing is certain, those fares are not sustainable, FR can easily make money elsewhere and their pockets are not everlasting despite the impression they give. It surprises me they've not tackled LPL where they are naturally stronger and had huge success numbers wise with last time around. Just begs the question why they didn't move to BFS if the runway length was such an issue, and I'd consider it possible they will again exit the NI aviation scene if they can't make money.