The business model is fundamentally flawed. Although they like to claim otherwise, Norwegian haven’t reinvented the wheel.
Low cost short haul works because costs can be cut to the very bone, aircraft utilisation is massive and so on. That just isn’t the case with long haul, it never has been and never will be. It would only ever work like IAG are doing it, where they go after a section of the market that would otherwise not be flying with their other brands, but in a way that complements their existing operations. Size and economies of scale being critical but even then there are no guarantees the model would work.
The 787 is a very pricey aircraft to purchase and/or lease. Yes it’s fuel efficient but not enough to make the difference for an Airline like Norwegian. It’s one of the reasons Level are flying the A330. I believe that if the oil price was closer to $100, Norwegian would already be consigned to the history books. The real issue is yield, or lack of it. I’ve read an analysis of the numbers stating that Norwegian’s break even load factor for 2017 was 95.9% and the 4th quarter was 99.4% That tells you all you need to know.
The current marketplace is probably as good as it gets for the industry. In that market, they’re producing woeful results. Given their cash situation, the competition they face & their aircraft orders etc. I’d give them 18 months at best.