Come on Dick, you're just being silly now. The whole of aviation runs on probability. Think take off data, airspace & separation, the list goes on.
As I understand ETOPS or EDTO, it's about quantifying risk, bringing it under management.
I'm not sure of your angle in this new near pointless thread but I'm sure it will become clear with a bit more waffle.
Life as a professional aviator is all about probability and managing risk when all is said and done.