Thread: Heathrow-2
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Old 29th Jan 2018, 11:02
  #255 (permalink)  
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Leeds
Posts: 496
Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
But if EZY started to operate from LHR, even if they carefully chose markets that BA don't currently serve, such is the latter's market dominance that they could undoubtedly squash EZY's ambitions were they minded to (which they no doubt would be).
If EZY were (or are likely to be) one of the main beneficiaries of an expanded LHR, it would call into question the "connectivity" argument, which as far as I'm aware is the only metric where LHR projects to be a better scheme than LGW. On the other arguments:

Economic case, LGW now projects to offer more net benefit in the long run.

Environmental case, LGW has always proved a stronger case than LHR (chiefly due to its location).

Cost to public purse, LHR has always been the more expensive option (by far), predominantly due to transport infrastructure cost.

Cost of scheme, LHR has always been the more expensive scheme (by far), predominantly due to its location and the need to bulldoze large communities. This is relevant because the airport is not a charity and will seek to recoup the cost from upping the charge to passengers. This may require a government undertaking not to permit a new runway in the south east for [X] number of years so as to not undermine the ability to charge monopolistic prices (bad for the consumer).

Then there is the legal position. LHR seem to be moving the goalposts on a number of issues. For example they are now thinking about phasing construction (sensible, but not part of the initial plan), there are now apparently a number of runway and terminal options (sensible but not part of the initial plan). The main issue caused by this is that there is no properly considered airspace plan - they are apparently waiting for the revamp of U.K. airspace in general. Should the government make a "decision" without this firmed up, I don't see how this would get past the courts when the inevitable challenge arrives.

If the connectivity argument is undermined in some way, I don't see how any government could continue to support the scheme.
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