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Old 20th January 2018 | 08:05
  #9 (permalink)  
Numero Crunchero
 
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 651
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From: Hong Kong
Lions-yes. But let me give an example to make it clearer.

We need 100 barrels of oil - we have hedged 50 at $80. So no matter what we are paying $4,000 for half our oil. (50 x $80)

Now if oil is $20 - we pay $1,000 for the other 50 barrels - total oil bill is $4,000 + $1,000 = $5,000. Now in actual fact, what would happen in this case is that we buy 100 barrels at $20 = $2,000 and lose $3,000 on the hedge ((80-20) x 50 = $60 x 50 = $3,000) Total bill is $2,000 for the oil plus $3,000 for fuel hedge loss = $5,000.

If oil is $80 a barrel, no hedge loss, but we pay 100 x $80 = $8,000 fuel bill

So lower oil price, bigger hedge loss, is better overall for us (given we are stuck with an ill thought out hedging legacy)
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