Originally Posted by
Heathrow Harry
Boffin
Do you think that if we didn't have them right now we'd actually order two carriers??
Don't confuse requirement with short-term financial exigency. Right now, we wouldn't order anything - with the possible exception of the deterrent.
You might almost ask if we didn't have them right now, would we order Typhoon? Or a Tornado replacement? Or Rivet Joint? Or A400M? Or HC6? Or T26? Or maintain an army of 80000? Or order new tanks/MICV?
The fact that the future of the Sentry capability is uncertain is a measure of the situation - a situation that has not been brought about by "the carriers", as only a cursory examination of budgets and where they've been spent would reveal. It is particularly disappointing that the chair of the PAC refers to Carrier Strike as the second biggest expense after the nuclear deterrent - which is patently and demonstrably untrue by spending ten minutes looking at the EP and the NAO major projects reports.
If you read the PAC report, it's actually a case of repeating nebulous "facts" - a great example being that the aircraft are "too heavy to land on the ship" - culled from random media sources, as "concerns", despite the fairly firm rebuttals given by the witnesses.
If you look at defence as a combination of what is required for national self-defence, plus what really adds value to an alliance (ie NATO), what you end up with is :
National Defence
Air - AWAC, MPA and DCA
Sea - CASD, plus Sea denial and security (SSK, MCMV, OPV)
Land - Coastal artillery, COIN light forces
Alliance contribution :
Air - Heavy lift AT, sigint, and possibly Sentinel
Sea - SSN, Amphib and Carrier Strike
Land - Possibly heavy armour
Everything else (OCA, Deep Strike, Tac AT, DD/FF, Infantry etc) is heavily duplicated throughout NATO.
The alliance contribution bit above is that which only the US and in their absence the UK and possibly FR can bring to the table. If you want to add value you do that. If you want to duplicate stuff (check out the VFM there!) you buy from the "everything else" list.