Thanks smarthawke, I had assumed that the G-LUSH pic was of the earlier incident as I thought it got written off at Meppershall.. I have googled and found other pics of the 2017 incident from other angles. I would still argue that the 2017 incident happened at low speed. As previously stated there is next to no deformation to the fuse and AAIB report (thanks for the link) states that the single occupant walked away with no injuries whatsoever. The energy involved in G-WAVS was astronomically more. The firewall and forward fuse on the PA-28 is the strongest part of that structure and so to be as disfigured as WAVS was took it being stopped very rapidly from a high velocity.
Originally Posted by
Shaggy Sheep Driver
The location pictures and maps above point to CFIT in my opinion (and that's all this is). Looks like they were flying low from the Evesham direction in IMC and hit the trees on top of the ridge. The ground rises very steeply just up-track of where the wreckage came to rest.
I'm not picking on you SSD, honest! But we may just have to agree to disagree! If just simply flying low they would have hit the trees first as I'm pretty sure (although not 100%) they are higher than the point of impact. IF the trees are what removed the wings there is NO WAY they would have ended up where they are in the media pictures. That is a long distance to travel and the energy absorbed by the trees in taking the wings off would have meant they would be dumped in that first field. OK so the wings could have been moved before the media shots but why move them to a difficult to place to recover them? There are far easier routes from the tree line to the vehicular access than to traipse them across this sticky field...
If the aircraft was simply descending and just missed the trees and then CFIT into the field it rested in (remember, it hasn't hit the stone wall at the field edge) then unless it was in a steep decent then it would have glanced the ground taking the landing gear off and travelled a long way in the field OR flipped on its back, neither of which have happened...
Originally Posted by
Shaggy Sheep Driver
This does not explain why such an experienced pilot who knew the area was that low in IMC. Simple altimeter mis-reading (would be far from the first time that's been done), or engine problems perhaps?
Coventry is the least likely airfield to depart with a miss-set altimeter. The reason being that Birmingham's controlled airspace sits 1500ft directly overhead. There are so many infringements from people flying in and out of there that those who call Cov home base are super vigilant and the controllers drum the QNH into you and the 1500ft climb limit into pilots before clearing (actually they have recently downgraded to A/G so no 'clearance' now!) you to line up. Then on takeoff you are so panicked about your altitude that you are watching it like a hawk and you would instantly notice if you hadn't set it right.
Originally Posted by
Shaggy Sheep Driver
I still think the wreckage shows every sign of impact with trees before coming to rest in the field. The lack of vertical deformation makes stall / spin unlikely in my opinion.
You are going to have to explain to me what you mean by 'vertical deformation'. What I see when I look at the wreckage is extreme deformation as if the aircraft were travelling vertically down... Same picture but you and I are seeing polar opposites!!!
So for it to be CFIT for me (and I did say a few post ago that it COULD be CFIT) they would have to have hit the trees, remained intact but lost control enough to have impacted the ground vertically (or with a large vertical component) down and broken apart then. Trouble is the eye (ear?) witness (who is named so more reliable than the witness who saw an aircraft in a tree which clearly NEVER happened as no tree near the final resting place is large enough to hold an aircraft prior to the emergency services removing it...) states a running engine and ONE loud bang. Had it hit the trees it would have been two impacts heard surely?
The other option is that the aircraft was in a very steep decent. A slight descent and it would not show the vertical impact damage it does and would most likely have flipped on hitting the ground.
The ear witness says the engine sounded off. What does a non-pilot know about how an engine should sound? It was making power at the time of impact or the blades would not be bent the way they are. It could have been losing power and therefore in a kind of forced descent. If that were me in IMC I would be at best glide and probably have full flaps. That way even if you don't get a chance to flare at the last second your energy is at the minimum and you have the best possible chance of survival. Had they hit the field they did at 60kts at a 7/1 angle they would have probably survived...
If they were descending to try and visual the ground it would surely have been a slow rate of descent? The forward speed would be high but then it would have flipped not hit and stopped with so much deformation and no apparent 'digging in'?
Still not enough fact available to proclaim it as CFIT or not CFIT methinks...