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Old 30th Dec 2017, 19:52
  #68 (permalink)  
dervis
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Planet earth
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No pilots

No pilots in the cockpit will not happen in the next 30 years or my guess even never.
Flying has so many variables:
-GPS ( flick of a button it can be switched off or jammed ...it happened to me)
-dogs crossing the runway. ( happened to me)
-birds (ask captain Sully)
-GS calling you 1500ft/min down and autopilot following.
-So many weather factors ....lightning/hail/turbulence etc etc
-I am not even talking about things breaking down.
-Passengers or cargo are also a huge variable they can do some strange stuff

Of course there are sufficient examples of pilot error but you don’t hear of all the times were we pilot needs to intervene due to system error. If we would simply not do our job then a lot more accidents would happen. The fact that flying is so safe is because we sit there to counteract (normally) any of these variables.

I read in a article that the US (only) loses on average about 25 Reapers a year of the 400 they have. That would mean we would lose around 2500 aircraft a year if there were 40.000 aircraft worldwide.
Connecting an aircraft to a ground station gives also another dozen problems.

Even Voyager in Star Wars flying at warp speed has a captain

As long as airlines keep buying aircraft there will be a shortage for qualified pilots. I do not foresee a change of the buying trend.
I don’t believe there will be a shortage for inexperienced pilots. Finding pilots to school is easy just open a funded program and the classes will be full but getting pilots experienced is a different story. That wil take much more time.
Also a continent which will require a huge amount of pilots in the future is Africa.

Last edited by dervis; 30th Dec 2017 at 21:01.
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