in 5-10 years time it wont matter how many shiney new jets you have in your fleet or on order people will be saying how many are parked up.
As I repeatedly state, this is a structural shortage.
The airlines that fail to unwind their adversarial models will lose out.
Australian airlines have enjoyed unparalleled access to pilots who;
- Had sufficient hours be they GA or military
- Had the requisite ATPL
- Had multi engine experience
- Had Paid for it themselves (or the taxpayer did)
The last funded cadet program for Qantas was on the eve of privatisation.
How Qantas unwinds their adversarial employee interaction model is anyone's guess. Given the protagonists (IR/HR) have had the run of the place for decades it is unlikely to change anytime soon.
Chinese carriers, funded by their government are simply extending the one belt one road model into aviation.
What will be really amusing to watch is the way the shortage plays out through the subsidiary airlines. Clamping down on pilots leaving Qlink for Qantas may further accelerate localised shortage.
Actually 'investing' in providing pilots with training and a career path will cost airlines. This cost will be borne as the structures in place are unwound. Replaced with a tangible investment in pilot supply is smart business: Pilots are strategic assets (Apologies to Mr O'Leary, Clifford, Rupert et al) Get pilots to pay for parking, uniforms and even their own interviews is something Mr O'Leary loved and has been embraced by other carriers too. Unwinding it will only begin in earnest when revenues are suffering due lack of supply...
When HR is a hammer, then any staff problem is a nail!