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-   -   Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost.html)

flightdecksoftware 17th Mar 2014 12:49


As an "IT Professional" you should know better ! Exactly how long do you think its going to take someone (or rather, as you well know, a number of someones... known as developers !) to (a) come up with a viable algorithm (b) code it (c) test and debug it ........ seriously man ! Its a non-starter of a hairbrained idea to think someone would expend so much resource !

The best you can hope for in that area is that, seeing as they are in the business of analysing satellite images for people trying to hide stuff, the intelligence agencies already have such an algorithm already in-use and that their masters may permit them to use it for this purpose to see what they can come up with (obviously findings would never be publicly released for obvious reasons, but would be passed in some obfuscated form to the nations taking part in the SAR). But I suspect satellite resources in that part of the world may be busy elsewhere.

As for "crowdsourcing" don't make me laugh. Tomnod is no more than marketing PR excercise for its owners. Have you seen the sort of nonsense the "crowdsourcing" community have been highlighting on the images ? People with no SAR and no satellite imagery analysis are not going to come up with anything of remote use.
I'm not an expert in image processing, but when processing these images I would expect that if you find debris you would see a lot of white-ish colors. So already a "simple" color histogram could already indicate anomalies. The only problem then remains that all clouds would also appear as false positives. But maybe these can also be filtered out somehow ? And even if this is not possible you would already eliminate a lot of area to search over. I'm sure there are a lot of algorithms and filters already available to do the job (maybe with some modification).

Maybe tomnod is indeed a PR stunt, that's why I said it could be checked by specialists.

mixture 17th Mar 2014 12:50

SgtBundy,

A week is a long time in technology.

If something remotely viable and simple to implement could have been done, it would have been done by now. The Tomnod marketing excercise was rolled out in a couple of days.

Fact of the matter is that implementing and debugging algorithms takes some time and effort... and therefore manpower and money.

Add onto that you're expecting satellite companies to retask their satellites for a vast area of fresh imagery..... who's going to pay for that on top of the development manpower for your magic algorithm.

Your optimism and faith in existing "simple algorithms" is commendable, but that's all it is.

Golf-Mike-Mike 17th Mar 2014 12:50


Originally Posted by Token Bird (Post 8383116)
Is it possible that the crew were partially incapacitated from insidious hypoxia caused by a slow decompression and tried to reprogramme the FMS to take them back to Kuala Lumpur. However, they failed to do this correctly and the aircraft turned onto an approximately southerly track, taking them past but not to Kuala Lumpur?

With complete unconsciousness and death following some time later for everyone on board, the aircraft just flew on this southerly track until it's fuel ran out, shortly after it gave its last ping, at which point it was positioned on the southern arc.

In other words, could this still possibly be just a terrible accident? No suicides, no hijackers, no nefarious goings on of any kind?

Except (I understand) they have primary radar "confirmation" of a north-easterly course after the westbound one (ie IGARI - VAMPI - GIVAL ....)

volcanicash 17th Mar 2014 12:51

Xeptu said:


The difficulty is that as the hours tick by the probability of a ping at the expected time becomes more likely that it could be from a different source, particularly towards Europe on the northern arc as aircraft and satcom units start powering up for their days work.
As previous noted, Inmarsat, while declining to discuss specifics of Flight 370, have said that each handshake always contains a code verifying the identity of the aircraft and it is "virtually impossible" to change an aircraft's identifying code or to confuse one aircraft with another. (Source CNN).

HAWK21M 17th Mar 2014 12:52

7.5hrs later the last recorded Ping picked up by Imarsat.Means the aircraft was on land and in one piece with power on.

Xeptu 17th Mar 2014 12:52

If SQ68 had no message to send, the acars would remain silent and the satcom would ping. There is definitely no identifiable data in a ping

EDIT: If data is to be sent either way then it will be preceded by a connection request (handshake) and yes that has identifiable date of course, I understood we were dealing with a ping.

oldoberon 17th Mar 2014 12:53

shadowing NO
 
This has been extensively covered and debunked.

A pilot told us he once flew across india shadowing a LARGER aircraft, the post sounded like a military excerise I assumed from it he was in a fighter and the biggy was a tanker.

he stated he had to sit almost under it's wing, now to know that the pair of aircraft must have been in contact with the radars tracking them.

In that scenario the biggy would inform him of any flight path / alt changes about to happen, not the stealth shadowing scenario.

Also you could only shadow from radar in on direction., so if crossing air defence you are still likely to be picked up at radar overlap points.

James bond was not flying it and Cubby Broccoli was not plotting the flight path

overthewing 17th Mar 2014 12:54


If you're TCAS is on then you are visible to other aircraft.
I'm afraid I don't know enough about TCAS to know what will happen if the a/c using it has no working transponder. Certainly, it won't co-ordinate with nearby TCAS systems as a collision advisory. But does the pilot get to see some kind of display of a/c in the vicinity? Does it still give data, but with no alarms going off?

And I don't think TCAS on /transponder off makes you visible to other a/c? Does it?

ChickenHouse 17th Mar 2014 12:55

Does anyone have an editable version of that map and could plot the flight data of SIA68 onto that? I have done some playing around with the flightaware data and can confirm that, if the westwards sightings are half way correct, it could be possible to let MH370 sneak under the radar hood of SIA68 at about IGREX, They could even squawk the same and any radar would interpret these double echos as faulty.

Anyone aware of the radar coverage around IGREX and later NW? If this theory holds, MH370 could sneak out later for i.e. Myanmar or Pakistan or or or ...

HAWK21M 17th Mar 2014 12:56

No transponders....no TCAS.
Except for MH370, the other Aircraft would never know.

FE Hoppy 17th Mar 2014 12:57

@ Volcanicash

They specifically said max/min speed with no mention of other factors which is why it goes in the "bobbins" file.

And they should have said maximum range speed not maximum speed. Maximum speed would (by my back of a fag packet calculation) be more restrictive.

skytrax 17th Mar 2014 13:01

Guys, forget about robbery scenarios and all that nonsense. Forget about the cargo, tones of gold etc that might have been on board.
Nobody in the right mind and familiar with the aviation field would try something like this because you cannnot get away with something like this. Too complicated to put in practise such thing.

I personally belive this was planned but for completly other reasons which are yet to be revealed. Hopefully we will get to know one day. Without finding the plane and black boxes information is very limited.

Kiwiairgurl 17th Mar 2014 13:01

I bet $50 Google is already in KL assisting
 
Re: SgtBundy

Google do public things during disasters like putting up people finder sites for people to find one another.

But they also do a lot of silent assistance and seem to be happy not to have to go public and bask in glory. So not only do they 'do no evil' they apparently 'do awesome' as well:)

I was involved in a govt role during a serious natural disaster. Google arrived within days, with the purpose of determining what logistical and expert assistance it could provide to the govt and they made available 24/7 assets by utilising Google teams located around the world.

I reckon they're already in KL and already putting their considerable capabilities where it's needed. With google earth in their asset collection they would more than have the ability to write algorithms.

The Bullwinkle 17th Mar 2014 13:01


@ ALL THE PRESS

There is a distinction between an aircraft engineer and a Flight Engineer. Please use the correct term.
And while we're on the subject, there is a difference between a Captain and a Chief Pilot.

The Australian press keep referring to the Captain as the Chief Pilot!
If he was the Chief Pilot then this story would be even scarier!

Mahatma Kote 17th Mar 2014 13:02


"virtually impossible" to change an aircraft's identifying code
The identifying code has to be changeable. Every time there is a maintenance swap-out of equipment the code has to be reprogrammed in the new equipment.

The only question is whether it requires physical access to the relevant PCB or whether it can be done using independent maintenance systems or using pilot interfaces operating in maintenance mode.

AerocatS2A 17th Mar 2014 13:02

Overthewing, all of the TCAS units I've played with have been integrated with the transponder. Turn the transponder off and you don't have a TCAS, at all, not for receiving or transmitting. Think of TCAS as a type of transponder rather than a separate system.

macilrae 17th Mar 2014 13:03

Professional Experts
 
On the subject of the "experts" who are continually trotted out by the likes of CNN and BBC - many of these folks are Professional Experts and they have spent a working lifetime polishing their credentials, rather than actually contributing to their field. They sit on the right committees, they acquire the right letters after their names and as 'talking heads' they sound super-authoritative - they excel in self-promotion. In fact you can find these people in every profession. The real experts, who can give the most insightful answers, are seldom seen - partly because they prefer to be doing real stuff - and maybe also because they are lousy presenters and shun the limelight.

xyze 17th Mar 2014 13:06

Skytrax:

At the risk of pointing out the obvious, they HAVE gotten away with the cargo.

Whether that was their aim is anyone's guess!

SeenItAll 17th Mar 2014 13:06

Moderators: Since it seems impossible to completely shut down this thread and the repetitive uninformed drivel that characterizes the majority of the posts, I have an alternative suggestion: split this thread into five separate threads.
  • One thread will be for posts suggesting that terrorists having hijacked the plane to land it or to plunder its cargo and then relaunch the plane as a bomb.
  • A second thread will be for the pilot suicide or "crash the plane where it will never be found" theory.
  • A third will be for the mechanical malfunction theory.
  • A fourth thread will be for a discussion of Search and Rescue operations.
  • And a final thread will be for posters who have not adequately read the previous posts but who want to pose a question to those that have.
By doing this, it will allow those who are absolutely convinced of terrorism not to be burdened by reading analysis about suicide or malfunctions; those who can see no logic in terrorism not to be burdened by endless X-Files speculation about cargo and Flying Dutchman relaunches; those who are sure the plane malfunctioned not to waste time discussing pilot or terrorist actions; those who just want to figure out where the plane is now not to listen to the previous three groups; and those that think they are on to something but don't want to the the research themselves to query from those that have.

This would save all of us a great deal of reading time. Thanks for listening.

currawong 17th Mar 2014 13:06

On the balance of probability -

the northern arc is mainly over China...

the pax are mainly from China...

the cargo is mainly mangosteens...

therefore -

no, you work it out for yourselves.

Thoughts to the families of the pax and crew at this difficult time.

I remain optimistic.

(And all that without lighting up anyone's radar screen, across several countries. Outstanding.)


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