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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 12:36   #7501 (permalink)
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
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Quote:
Anyone know: How does EICAS prioritise cargo fire vs cabin alt warnings?
It doesn't, it prioritises what comes first!
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 12:36   #7502 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RTD1 View Post
And there you have it.

All of the reports of the route change having been deliberately pre-programmed into the flight computer.............DEBUNKED.
All of the reports of the change being made at least 12 minutes prior to the 1:19 "alright goodnight" last communication with ATC............DEBUNKED.

Whatever went wrong, went wrong quickly between 1:19 and 1:22.
It also means that ACARS did not report any system errors or emergencies like fire warnings or cabin pressure warnings. Remember the cabin pressure warning from AF447. So presumably this also means that there were no fires or depressurization, unless one can invent an explosion that will take out some but not all communications and power systems and leave the aircraft in a flyable state.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 12:41   #7503 (permalink)
 
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If MH370 wreckage found in Southern Indian ocean.....

Then it was very probably a deliberate act....

The "ghost plane after malfunction" theory does not work if any wreckage of MH370 is found in the SIO search area.

If a 777 reaches has a route discountinuity in the FMC, it reverts to HDG mode. All the MCP setting are referenced on magnetic unless in the polar regions (80 degrees N or S) or the HDG REF button is pushed. That would be a deliberate act of someone who knows the systems and implications.

In the case of the "Ghost plane" scenario the aircraft, after it turned WNW would have been either tracking to a programmed FMC waypoint or it would have been in a lateral AP mode referenced on magnetic north, HDG or TRK, it does not really matter. If tracking to the FMC waypoint, once it reached it, it would have reverted to HDG.

For the aircraft to track direct to the area of the last known ping and the current search area, there are only two ways to do it. One is a programmed FMC waypoint and the other is someone flying the aircraft via the HDG or TRK button and taking into account the 30-35 degree change in magnetic variation encountered along the route.

Here is the Isogonal chart for the Indian Ocean. The purple lines are magnetic variation.



Obviously if a pilot can take magnetic variation into account for 6-7 hours, he can also program an FMC to take him straight to the point. Deliberate action.

If a "ghost plane" had left the northern Malacca Strait and headed south in either HDG or TRK (remember TRK is still magnetic) going towards to the now search area, it would have had around 188 degrees (!) set in the HDG window. The following diagram indicate what would have happened in that case.




It is necessarily not definitive and works on a distance travelled every hour of 485 Knots GS and it takes the midpoint magnetic variation value in each leg.

The Pink line is the direct track.

The Yellow line is the approximate path a heading of 188 would have achieved if not changed from the northern Malacca Strait. The distance between the search datum/red line and the end of the yellow line is about 420NM.

The Red line is the approximate last ping satellite arc.

The Green line is an approximate track that a heading of about 197 would have taken to arrive at the search zone.

It is only valid if:

1. the previous pings match this approximate track and,

2. the fuel on board could have kept the aircraft flying for that length of time, and,

3. 197 was the last track set in the HDG window before the crew was incapacitated. This is approx 90 degrees away from the last known track.

It is also about 200nm longer than the direct track.

I haven't seen any evidence that the green line matches the track of the previous pings, nor know of any safety related reason why the crew would have selected a southerly heading after clearing the Malacca Strait.

Here is a closer view.



The Malaysian Govt has stated that direct interference is the primary suspect here. I believe that is based on evidence from the previous pings that would show a direct line being taken to the search area datum, which implies FMC input.

If nothing else, this shows that a "ghost plane" would have taken a curved path to the crash site due to reversionary AP modes and changes in magnetic variation.

Any direct line over such a distance however, must be deliberate programming of the FMC.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 12:45   #7504 (permalink)
 
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http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/medi..._OPS-SEQ09.pdf

notes that:

Quote:
The cabin crew must remember that, in cases of continued physical activity, the time of
useful consciousness (Table 1) is significantly reduced.
I think a certain amount of activity would be occuring.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 12:48   #7505 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RTD1 View Post
As of 1:07, that is absolutely correct.

The next scheduled ACARS comm was not until 1:37.

The problem seems to have happened between 1:19 and 1:22.

We're nowhere near solving this thing, but the press release from last night does seem to rule out a couple of widely speculated possibilities.
ACARS would not wait till the 'next scheduled transmission' for an emergency status message like fire or depressurization.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 13:00   #7506 (permalink)
 
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This is costing the Chinese massively in Satellite resources.

Photo reconnaissance satellites typically follow a polar orbit. This goes over both poles, whilst the earth rotates underneath, so they spend equal amounts of time in the northern and southern hemispheres.
The timing of the orbits puts them over their targets early in the morning or late in the afternoon, in sun synchronous orbits, to get 3D perspective.
To change orbit to look at a different target uses up manoeuvre fuel. They obviously only have a finite amount of this so using it is incredibly expensive in terms of the life of the satellite. They also use fuel to counter the effects of orbital decay.

During the Falklands war the USA changed the orbit of a KH-11 (which cost well over a billion dollars, more than a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier) to provide the UK with intelligence. Casber Weinberger earned his knighthood.

When the Chinese moved as many as "10" satellites to the Gulf of Thailand/South China Sea it must have cost them an utter fortune in using up the life of these assets.
When they changed the orbits again to cover the southern Indian Ocean it cost them yet another utter fortune.
They will now have a very big shortfall in their reconnaissance capabilities for a few years as they have to manufacture new resources.

These satellites have many sensors, not just the visible spectrum. Use your imagination a bit and they will have tried it. KH-12s weigh about 20,000 kg, which is a huge amount of kit. And they are not the biggest.

They produce immense amounts of data, far more than could possibly be analysed by humans. So the initial analysis is done by computers, unless they are examining a known target.

All this means that they can look at a lot of the sea and can examine it in surprising detail. If you just think of what they have already found it is needle in a haystack stuff.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 13:02   #7507 (permalink)
 
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Ghost Plane

@ Capt Kremin

Is there any info on how disruptive wind be over that flight? Could a significantly different HDG end up there?


Oops - edit region to flight.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 13:08   #7508 (permalink)
 
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Rightbase, I dont have the winds on the day but a southerly track in that area would generally be all crosswind, there for I have used TAS as GS. It is a guesstimate. Generally in the tropics you have easterlies becoming westerlies the further you go south. they wouldn't even out because the westerlies are generally stronger.. It makes the direct track = deliberate action case that much stronger.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 13:08   #7509 (permalink)
 
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"Sky asked whether there were lithium batteries on board during one of the press conferences. In my opinion, the answer given was non-conclusive, far from being a confirmation - despite the reports. There might well have been, but I'd rather see the cargo manifest to be certain. "


Thx GobonaStick,

Strange officials will not give clear yes or no answer!

Last edited by N4565L; 23rd Mar 2014 at 13:11. Reason: Left out quote, standalone reply would not make sense to other readers
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 13:12   #7510 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
This is costing the Chinese massively in Satellite resources.
Not only them, the BBc are reporting France is retasking one of theres to redo the area as well.

That table showing all the resources that countrys are putting in should have a column for satellites.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 13:18   #7511 (permalink)
 
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Capt Kremin

There have been a few posts on this thread that have been masterly in their insight. Yours is one of them. Thank you.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 13:20   #7512 (permalink)
 
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LI Batteries in cargo

Quote:
Originally Posted by N4565L
where Malaysian official stated cargo included lithium batteries
There was covered many pages ago. The MAS CEO (at one of the press conferences) stated there were some small LI batts not big ones. No further elaboration was given. At subsequent conferences, the line was changed to - cargo list is with investigators. Incidentally, in an earlier conference, mangosteens were mentioned.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 13:28   #7513 (permalink)
 
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If MH370 wreckage found in Southern Indian ocean.....

@Capt Kremin

Nice one, very informative.

On the wind issue, a uniform wind over the track would be taken out in the fitting of the ping data, it is just a triangle of velocities. As you say, a changing wind would give more deviation from the tracks you show.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 13:30   #7514 (permalink)
 
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Fuel levels

Quote:
Originally Posted by Capt Kremlin
only valid if:.....
2. the fuel on board could have kept the aircraft flying for that length of time
MAS CEO had stated that a/c had enough fuel to reach Beijing + contingencies.

Recall many years ago a MAS flight on hold over LHR had to declare an emergency as they had insufficient fuel. Believe UK authorities had investigated and imposed a fine. Don't know if MAS bean counters have changed policy to save fuel.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 13:30   #7515 (permalink)
 
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Why would the transponder be switched off if it wasn't unlawful interference. Just a thought but I have seen aircraft switch to standby, change the code and then re-enable the transponder. This is may be done to ensure any incorrect transition code is not transmitted. So 'what if' the pilot switched to standby to select another code, changed the code and then became distracted, either by hypoxia or another event and never switched the transponder back on? What is SOP on MAS?
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 13:35   #7516 (permalink)
 
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Hi,

Well .... in a few days this was some sat findings (photos) that made the news and officially aknowledged ..
Now the french sat will certainly provide the same kind of data ....
Unfortunately no one of those debris photographied by sats where seen by human eyes ....
Where this is going ?
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 13:39   #7517 (permalink)
 
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the critical 3 minutes

Quote:
Originally Posted by RTD1
The problem seems to have happened between 1:19 and 1:22.
3 minutes is a long time where an a/c in flight and fire is concerned.

IF a fire, it would probably have started some time before the 3 minutes (e.g. nose wheel heating up and then catching fire), only reaching the critical point somewhere in those 3 minutes - knocking out comms - pilots pulling buses etc.

Other IF scenarios highly unlikely...
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 13:51   #7518 (permalink)
 
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Ghost Flight

Not being critical in any way - quite the reverse. Off to look at charts ...
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 13:54   #7519 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Just a thought but I have seen aircraft switch to standby, change the code and then re-enable the transponder. This is may be done to ensure any incorrect transition code is not transmitted.
Been answered before, so I suspect this will b yet another short lived answer but....

No need to switch the Xpdr to standby on modern kit of the type installed on the T7, you just punch in the new code..
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 14:06   #7520 (permalink)
 
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Not so small and not so few.. says The Daily Mail today

MH370 WAS carrying highly flammable lithium batteries admits CEO of Malaysian Airlines | Mail Online

Missing jet WAS carrying highly flammable lithium batteries: CEO of Malaysian Airlines finally admits to dangerous cargo four days after DENYING it
When asked days ago, he said it was carrying 'tonnes of mangosteens'
Lithium-ion batteries have caused 140 mid-air incidents in last 20 years
The devices are commonly used in mobile phones and laptops
Classed as dangerous by The International Civil Aviation Organisation
Reignites theory that missing flight may have crashed after on-board fire
Aviation expert said it re-affirm belief that flames started in cargo hold
One cargo plane crashed in 2010 after attempting an emergency landing
Safety report said battery caught fire and filled the flight deck with smoke
By SIMON TOMLINSON

PUBLISHED: 17:11 GMT, 21 March 2014 | UPDATED: 08:57 GMT, 22 March 2014

6,657 shares 766View
comments
Malaysian Airlines today confirmed that flight MH370 had been carrying highly flammable lithium-ion batteries in its cargo hold, re-igniting speculation that a fire may have caused its disappearance.

The admission by CEO Ahmad Jauhari comes four days after he denied the aircraft was carrying any dangerous items and nearly two weeks after the plane went missing.

He said the authorities were investigating the cargo, but did not regard the batteries as hazardous - despite the law dictating they are classed as such - because they were packaged according to safety regulations.

The revelation has thrown the spotlight back on the theory that the Boeing 777 may have been overcome by a fire, rendering the crew and passengers unconscious after inhaling toxic fumes.

Lithium-ion batteries - which are used in mobile phones and laptops - have been responsible for a number of fires on planes and have even brought aircraft down in recent years.

Malaysian Airlines today confirmed that missing MH370 (pictured on an earlier flight) had been carrying highly flammable lithium-ion batteries in its cargo hold four days after denying it had any dangerous goods on board +14

Malaysian Airlines today confirmed that missing MH370 (pictured on an earlier flight) had been carrying highly flammable lithium-ion batteries in its cargo hold four days after denying it had any dangerous goods on board

Lithium-ion batteries like this one used in laptops were being carried in the cargo hold of the flight, it was revealed by Malaysia Airlines (file picture of unconnected battery) +14
Lithium-ion batteries like this one used in laptops were being carried in the cargo hold of the flight, it was revealed by Malaysia Airlines (file picture of unconnected battery)

CHANGING RESPONSES FROM CEO
What Ahmad Jauhari said four days ago:

When asked at a press conference if there was any dangerous cargo on board, he replied: 'We had a load of mangosteens headed to China.

'It was a large quantity - about three to four tonnes of mangosteens,' he said to laughter from the media.

What he said today:

'We carried some lithium-ion small batteries, they are not big batteries and they are basically approved under the ICAO (The International Civil Aviation Organisation) under dangerous goods.'

According to US-based Federal Aviation Administration, lithium-ion batteries carried in the cargo or baggage have been responsible for more than 140 incidents between March 1991 and February 17 this year, it was reported by Malaysiakini.

In rare cases, aircraft have been destroyed as a result of fires started from the devices, although they have been cargo planes in both incidents.

In one case, UPS Airlines Flight 6 crashed while attempting an emergency landing in September 2010 en route from Dubai to Cologne in Germany.

Flight MH370 disappeared from radar screens two weeks ago on March 8 after taking off from Kuala Lumpur bound for Beijing.

The second day of a new search, concentrating on a desolate area in the southern Indian Ocean, failed to locate two possible pieces of debris from the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777.

Aircraft and ships scoured the seas around 2,500kilometres off the coast of the Australian city of Perth, for 10 hours before darkness fell. Australian officials have vowed to continue the search tomorrow.

Billie Vincent, the former head of security for the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, said the revelation re-affirmed his belief that flames started in the cargo hold, destroying the aircraft's communication systems then filling the cabin with toxic fumes.

This, he says, would have overwhelmed the passengers but may have given the pilots a chance to divert the aircraft for an emergency landing.

He told Air Traffic Management: 'The data released thus far most likely points to a problem with hazardous materials.
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