How could BA short haul improve?
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Connecting passengers are vital to BA's long-haul success. If they abandoned short-haul they would lose at least 28 million passengers connecting to their long-haul services.
Given there are roughly 42 "main" airlines operating long haul routes (sum of OneWorld plus StarAlliance members)... BA will probably loose some of those 4.5 million to their competitors ...
And that's before we start writing off people who're only flying premium because they're using Avios or they're on a corporate deal.
Of course BA want all the passengers they can get ... BA only publicly publish (as far as I can tell) overall pax figures... which was roughly 32 million in 2010.... so if we generously assume premium cabin space is on average 40%, that's 13 million premium passengers.... which means BA probably only get about 10-20% of their premium passengers off the feeder routes.
Of course I've only focused on premium passengers above, because as we all know, that's where the money is made to pay for the cattle in the back ...
(The aforementioned Easyjet document is here ... the figures I refer to in paragraph one are on page 20)
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From the CAA report linked above:
3.3 Much of the growth in connecting traffic can be attributed to the rising number of international - international passengers which has quadrupled from 4.4 million in 1987 to 17.9 million in 2007, whereas total passengers at Heathrow have only doubled over this period. The increase in long haul services at the airport has given rise to greater numbers of domestic - long haul connectors (1.5 million in 1987 to 4.0 million in 2007), short haul - long haul connectors (3.1 million to 13.1 million) and long haul - long haul connectors (0.7 million to 4.2 million).
I'd trust the CAA data, although somewhat dated, over an airline that doesn't fly to Heathrow.
3.3 Much of the growth in connecting traffic can be attributed to the rising number of international - international passengers which has quadrupled from 4.4 million in 1987 to 17.9 million in 2007, whereas total passengers at Heathrow have only doubled over this period. The increase in long haul services at the airport has given rise to greater numbers of domestic - long haul connectors (1.5 million in 1987 to 4.0 million in 2007), short haul - long haul connectors (3.1 million to 13.1 million) and long haul - long haul connectors (0.7 million to 4.2 million).
I'd trust the CAA data, although somewhat dated, over an airline that doesn't fly to Heathrow.
I would take the CAA stuff with a very, very large pinch of salt. The CAA has no independant way of establishing this data. It is entirely dependant on vested interests when it assembles the data. It has no means of even auditing the data!!!
For instance, when Thiefrow was reporting 30 mins queues for Security, and we were all experiencing 90-120 minutes or longer queues, it came in to the public domain that the CAA allowed Thiefrow to "average out" the queues over the full 24 hours. Er, from about 10.00 to 0500 the queues are Zero.
For instance, when Thiefrow was reporting 30 mins queues for Security, and we were all experiencing 90-120 minutes or longer queues, it came in to the public domain that the CAA allowed Thiefrow to "average out" the queues over the full 24 hours. Er, from about 10.00 to 0500 the queues are Zero.
Yup. Read it.
It claims to draw its data from the "CAA" pax survey. No data is provided about who carries this out, and how.
In all my years of flying, I have only ever seen one pax survey person from CAA.
In 3 years of "connecting" (long haul back to Bru) I never saw a survey person.
If there is a place where they describe the "n" covered by the survey, I missed it. They then extrapolate from their n to the millions. I am extremely suspicious.
Again - go back to my earlier comments - Thiefrow queuing.
It claims to draw its data from the "CAA" pax survey. No data is provided about who carries this out, and how.
In all my years of flying, I have only ever seen one pax survey person from CAA.
In 3 years of "connecting" (long haul back to Bru) I never saw a survey person.
If there is a place where they describe the "n" covered by the survey, I missed it. They then extrapolate from their n to the millions. I am extremely suspicious.
Again - go back to my earlier comments - Thiefrow queuing.
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AO - you need to do a basic stats course -
People are pretty good at predicting UK election results by interviewing 1500 people - if they interview 3000 the margin of error is <1%
No reason why it should be any different with airlines
People are pretty good at predicting UK election results by interviewing 1500 people - if they interview 3000 the margin of error is <1%
No reason why it should be any different with airlines
Mr Heathrow.
Yup.
Done that. (Twice). I can b.s. my way on stats. So can Thiefrow's owners.
The CAA interviewers, (if they have any now - I think it is subcontracted out) do not interview 1500 people, so cannot be used to cover the many millions that the report is s'posed to cover.
And, er, how many of the connections are in the early hours as the planes come in from Asia and Americas? How many interviewers around then?
Plus, the Interview intentions questions used for Elections are much less complex than the data required for that report.
But you haven't paid for the 10 minute argument.......
Yup.
Done that. (Twice). I can b.s. my way on stats. So can Thiefrow's owners.
The CAA interviewers, (if they have any now - I think it is subcontracted out) do not interview 1500 people, so cannot be used to cover the many millions that the report is s'posed to cover.
And, er, how many of the connections are in the early hours as the planes come in from Asia and Americas? How many interviewers around then?
Plus, the Interview intentions questions used for Elections are much less complex than the data required for that report.
But you haven't paid for the 10 minute argument.......
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Here you go, CAA's methodology. Methodology | Data, Analysis and Statistics | About the CAA
Not to be confused with 'wishful thinking' analysis
Not to be confused with 'wishful thinking' analysis
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People are pretty good at predicting UK election results by interviewing 1500 people - if they interview 3000 the margin of error is <1%
How many predicted the ConDem coalition then ?
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Realistically, fewer than those that forecast a minority government. But voter opinions were irrelevant in the forming of the coalition.
Now, can we get back to the topic?
Now, can we get back to the topic?
Long term improvement plan for BA short haul.
1. Back, and build, Boris Island.
2. Move BA to Boris Island first. (But look how they are opening T2. Do not do a T5 again, please)
3. Run as many flights as you like in the first few years as the Omani/Saudi owners of Boris Island will give you cheap slots for the first few year.
Get Boris to ban Unite and Balpa from Boris Island. Make it a "Right to Work" Island
5. Flog off Thiefrow to HKG based developers who will pay more for it than it is worth as an airport. HKG developers know how to make money from property.
6. Do a deal with EZY to own, manage and run your short haul connectors to your long haul. Do not let BA management manage it.
1. Back, and build, Boris Island.
2. Move BA to Boris Island first. (But look how they are opening T2. Do not do a T5 again, please)
3. Run as many flights as you like in the first few years as the Omani/Saudi owners of Boris Island will give you cheap slots for the first few year.
Get Boris to ban Unite and Balpa from Boris Island. Make it a "Right to Work" Island
5. Flog off Thiefrow to HKG based developers who will pay more for it than it is worth as an airport. HKG developers know how to make money from property.
6. Do a deal with EZY to own, manage and run your short haul connectors to your long haul. Do not let BA management manage it.
Thread Starter
Open a fast rail link as an extension to cross rail at the same time as the new airport, make it Zone 7 and charge a reasonable ticket price.
Can't imagine it happening!
Can't imagine it happening!
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Ground Transport in London from Heathrow isn't bad, if you can afford the prices. But to the west, north and south they are crap.
When I lived in Northamptonshire, in an area not served by National Express, to get to/from LHR was a public transport nightmare, it would have meant a 1 hour bus through the country lanes and then a walk to the train station, then a train in to one London terminus ... and you know the rest.
That's when I started utilising one-way hire cars, cheaper and more convenient than public transport and cheaper on car parking (i.e. no car parking) than using one's own car.
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I've stood on the edge of large car parking lots a few times. Once it didn't show up at all (despite buying a ticket in advance from there) and the other times it was at least 20 minutes late. If you choose this option add at least a half-hour for contingencies.
Oh, and National Express apologised for the no-show, but that is all they did. A unforeseen technical problem, not our fault ...
Oh, and National Express apologised for the no-show, but that is all they did. A unforeseen technical problem, not our fault ...
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1. Back, and build, Boris Island.
2. Move BA to Boris Island first. (But look how they are opening T2. Do not do a T5 again, please)
3. Run as many flights as you like in the first few years as the Omani/Saudi owners of Boris Island will give you cheap slots for the first few year.
Get Boris to ban Unite and Balpa from Boris Island. Make it a "Right to Work" Island
5. Flog off Thiefrow to HKG based developers who will pay more for it than it is worth as an airport. HKG developers know how to make money from property.
6. Do a deal with EZY to own, manage and run your short haul connectors to your long haul. Do not let BA management manage it.
2. Move BA to Boris Island first. (But look how they are opening T2. Do not do a T5 again, please)
3. Run as many flights as you like in the first few years as the Omani/Saudi owners of Boris Island will give you cheap slots for the first few year.
Get Boris to ban Unite and Balpa from Boris Island. Make it a "Right to Work" Island
5. Flog off Thiefrow to HKG based developers who will pay more for it than it is worth as an airport. HKG developers know how to make money from property.
6. Do a deal with EZY to own, manage and run your short haul connectors to your long haul. Do not let BA management manage it.
1) Build new airport in the sea. Easy peasy. Yes folks, under the approach to Schiphol. In the sea......
2) Close LHR airport.
3) Deal with the 000s of newly unemployed blue collar people that are not able to commute to another county. Hotels, B&Bs, taxi drivers, retaurants, you know, the "little people" who lack that Oxbridge classics degree who see the obvious we all miss.
4) Pay off HAL, Several £££££££££££££££££££s.
5) Compensate BA for their maintenance base. The one they'll have to replicate all over again. In the sea. Several more of your ££££££££££££££££££s.
6) Likewise VS.
7) Build a new city that no one living nearby can live in as daddy lost his job when Boris closed the *biggest employer in the area*.
8) Sell off the new LHR houses to people with better incomes so they can accumulate wealth off the back of a property bubble.
etc
Consider how the radius of LHR's catchment area runs all the way to Bristol whereas 50% of Fantasy Island is er....well populated by fish. On the wrong side of London, but fish makes the point better. Far from all those pesky businesses and the wealth creators of the M4 corridor.
No serious non partisan study is supporting this deluded folly. Unless we've discovered some gold to pay for it all? Have we discovered gold?
** In other news, the (quite enormous) budget deficit went up, yes got bigger, as in not smaller last month..... Right.....
btw the idea of an old Etonian elitist ,the "born to the purple" brigade arbitrarilly banning union membership speaks volumes about you as a person and how you see people less fortunate. I won't begrudge the daylight robbery of TFL drivers being overpaid when I see just how grossly overpaid many of the people on those trains are. #b(w)ankers MPs etc etc.
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I think the last thing the South East is more foreigners buying/building properties, fuelling a bubble and pricing locals out of the housing market and dooming them to be renters forever.
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My next to last experience with BA short haul was when they lied to me cancelling my LUX/LGW flight supposedly due maintenance when in fact it was due to very few pax booked.
My last experience with BA short haul was AMS/LGW when they allocated me to a broken seat that the cabin crew hadn't even been aware of and then flew the (bumpy) sector with the gear down to get down to MLW because some muppet had overfuelled the aircraft.
To name but a few I've flown with Laker, Brymon, Air UK, Inter European, Monarch, Air 2000, Air Kilroe, Business Air, KLM, Luxair, Lufthansa, Swiss, SAS, Air Baltic, Ryanair, BMI Baby, Alitalia, Air France, City Jet, Carpatair, MALEV Hungarian, Ukraine International, Austrian Airlines, Motor Sich, South Airlines, AeroSvit, Cyprus Airways, Turkish Airlines, Dniproavia, Corendon, Cathay Pacific, Cebu Air, Philippines Airlines, Air Philippines, Zest Air ... and no doubt others that I can't recall.
NEVER have I experienced two such back to back problems as I experienced with BA short haul ... How might BA short haul improve things? ... Shut the operation down!
My last experience with BA short haul was AMS/LGW when they allocated me to a broken seat that the cabin crew hadn't even been aware of and then flew the (bumpy) sector with the gear down to get down to MLW because some muppet had overfuelled the aircraft.
To name but a few I've flown with Laker, Brymon, Air UK, Inter European, Monarch, Air 2000, Air Kilroe, Business Air, KLM, Luxair, Lufthansa, Swiss, SAS, Air Baltic, Ryanair, BMI Baby, Alitalia, Air France, City Jet, Carpatair, MALEV Hungarian, Ukraine International, Austrian Airlines, Motor Sich, South Airlines, AeroSvit, Cyprus Airways, Turkish Airlines, Dniproavia, Corendon, Cathay Pacific, Cebu Air, Philippines Airlines, Air Philippines, Zest Air ... and no doubt others that I can't recall.
NEVER have I experienced two such back to back problems as I experienced with BA short haul ... How might BA short haul improve things? ... Shut the operation down!
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when in fact it was due to very few pax booked
The European Parliament, and the Commission, were absolutely convinced that this was regular practice by airlines. That is one reason why the penalties in the regulation text were much higher for cancellations than for delays. There was no compensation for delays, only for cancellations. ((For the minute let's ignore the fact that the ECJ has made the penalties for delays the same as cancellations.))
The Parliament, and the Commission wanted to punish the airlines for their nefarious practices and fully expected to see a significant reduction in flight cancellations at European airports with the implementation of 261. Thinking that after paying out wads of cash the airlines would stop being nefarious and fewer cancellations would happen.
Funny thing was that there was no significant change before/after the Regulation. In a study done by outside consultants done 5 years after the implementation they found the the regulation had no effect on the rate or frequency of cancellations. I've tried to find the study online but it isn't on the Commissions web-site.
I have no doubt that your cancellation occurred, and I'm not surprised that the flight that was cancelled was one with few passengers on it. No doubt one of their aeroplanes went technical and they decided to cancel the flight which would have the least financial impact on them. It also meant they were cancelling the flight that would have the least number of passengers impacted - and that would be a very good thing, at least for those that did travel on the night.
I'm not a fan of BA or the awful airports they base their aircraft at. I avoid them both because, when things go pear shaped they will screw the short-haul passengers first. They need to have a real hard think about other schemes that can be put in place, or find ways of proactively cancelling much further in advance. Almost everyone I know has had BA leave them queuing at the airport after learning only there that their flights had been affected by something happening at Heathrow.