How Will the War End?
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How Will the War End?
The recent Nato Summit in Vilnius has once again reminded everyone about Article 5 and thus the impossibility of Ukraine’s membership of Nato until the War ends.
But how or when will the War end? It is clearly not in Russia’s interests to call it a day, knowing that would trigger the one thing they want least – a further expansion of Nato. It also begs the question, what is a “war”, how is it defined? At what point can a “war”, particularly this war, said to be ended?
Ukraine have said that all Russian forces must leave all of Ukraine’s territory, so one assumes that talks about ending the war would not start before then. And that still leaves the not trivial matters of financial reparations, and justice for the war crimes committed, both of which presumably Ukraine would insist on being addressed to its satisfaction.
So, going back to my question what would constitute an end to the war, would it just be an agreed ceasefire? To what extent does Nato have to be satisfied that the war has ended, and thus be able to invite Ukraine in? I fear there is a very long way to go with this one.
But how or when will the War end? It is clearly not in Russia’s interests to call it a day, knowing that would trigger the one thing they want least – a further expansion of Nato. It also begs the question, what is a “war”, how is it defined? At what point can a “war”, particularly this war, said to be ended?
Ukraine have said that all Russian forces must leave all of Ukraine’s territory, so one assumes that talks about ending the war would not start before then. And that still leaves the not trivial matters of financial reparations, and justice for the war crimes committed, both of which presumably Ukraine would insist on being addressed to its satisfaction.
So, going back to my question what would constitute an end to the war, would it just be an agreed ceasefire? To what extent does Nato have to be satisfied that the war has ended, and thus be able to invite Ukraine in? I fear there is a very long way to go with this one.
It will end whenever Russia has left all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea. This will happen before or after some regime change in Russia.
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More likely peter out to a low level war bit like it was before the invasion.....Ukraine too weak to expel the Russians and the Russian unwllling to expand their armed forces to a size to bring complete victory....
Russia is now much weaker politically, internationally, militarily and economically than it was before the invasion whilst Ukraine is stronger, more united and now has powerful allies. It is almost certainly too late for Putin to save his regime, and his successor will be too busy distancing himself from Putin's failures and trying to save the RF to continue the pointless waste of Russian blood and treasure in Ukraine.
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Indeed though they don't engage in military action. An alternative is the border disputes between China and India which started in the 1960s and which flare up in fighting now and again the latest in 2020-21.
Ukraine's best hope to truly end the war is regime change in Russia. Even if a rabid nationalist takes over they might just have enough commonsense to realise that the whole SMO is a complete clusterf*ck and endless distraction that will probably destroy them unless they find a way to end it.
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We will probably see some changes in basic NATO agreement wording itself to allow states like Ukraine to join.
Russia will leave Ukraine only if defeated on battlefield, and chances are slim for that one. Ukraine could accept status quo, chances of that are even slimmer.
The Norkers have attacked, and on a few occasions sunk, a variety of South Korean ships over the years. There have also been a number of incidents along the DMZ since its establishment, to include the infamous "tree cutting" incident that got a couple of American officers killed.
admikar, I don't entirely dismiss Ukraine defeating Russia on the battlefield - if they are given the weapons required!
Russia will leave Ukraine only if defeated on battlefield, and chances are slim for that one.
The recent Nato Summit in Vilnius has once again reminded everyone about Article 5 and thus the impossibility of Ukraine’s membership of Nato until the War ends.
But how or when will the War end? It is clearly not in Russia’s interests to call it a day, knowing that would trigger the one thing they want least – a further expansion of Nato. It also begs the question, what is a “war”, how is it defined? At what point can a “war”, particularly this war, said to be ended?
Ukraine have said that all Russian forces must leave all of Ukraine’s territory, so one assumes that talks about ending the war would not start before then. And that still leaves the not trivial matters of financial reparations, and justice for the war crimes committed, both of which presumably Ukraine would insist on being addressed to its satisfaction.
So, going back to my question what would constitute an end to the war, would it just be an agreed ceasefire? To what extent does Nato have to be satisfied that the war has ended, and thus be able to invite Ukraine in? I fear there is a very long way to go with this one.
But how or when will the War end? It is clearly not in Russia’s interests to call it a day, knowing that would trigger the one thing they want least – a further expansion of Nato. It also begs the question, what is a “war”, how is it defined? At what point can a “war”, particularly this war, said to be ended?
Ukraine have said that all Russian forces must leave all of Ukraine’s territory, so one assumes that talks about ending the war would not start before then. And that still leaves the not trivial matters of financial reparations, and justice for the war crimes committed, both of which presumably Ukraine would insist on being addressed to its satisfaction.
So, going back to my question what would constitute an end to the war, would it just be an agreed ceasefire? To what extent does Nato have to be satisfied that the war has ended, and thus be able to invite Ukraine in? I fear there is a very long way to go with this one.
Weapons and ordnance supply from NATO and friends dwindles to a point where increasing Orc production creates either a political crisis among Ukr friends or a battlefield crisis.
"We are not Amazon", and none of our governments are as well motivated as Putin, excluding Ukr, Poland and the Baltics.
A non-event 2023 counter-offensive might prompt some NATO anxious stock-taking and some too-late action.
I hope that I am wrong. ...... the above ends the war with the nominally triumphant Bear licking its wounds and NATO in a blame game.
My concern is that the Ukraine war may end much like WW1 with a settlement which leaves the Russians wounded, feeling humiliated and wanting revenge. Germany felt humiliated but not defeated and this helped the rise of Hitler. However the Ukraine war ends, and that is anyone's guess, we need some kind of definitive resolution, whatever that may be. Here is a conversation with the acclaimed Canadian historian, Margaret MacMillan, who has written excellent books about WW1, I recommend this:-<br /><br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGpbhuFVIkM">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGpbhuFVIkM</a>
Last edited by Bergerie1; 14th Jul 2023 at 20:14.
Russia or what will be left, more likely several separate parts, might need something more radical like Germany after WW2. A new constitution, some new legal and political system and a new educational system from the ground up (although partly with old teachers...). They have the raw materials to pay for A LOT of compensation to Ukraine. How about giving Russia's security council seat to Ukraine?
China will not let the west win, or be seen to win, the war outright.
This analogy has been peddled before, and if it has any validity, it is to make sure that Ukraine's allies take steps to ensure that it is adequately defended against future Russian aggression. Post WWI, Britain and her allies were exhausted by war with Germany and didn't want to contemplate it all starting again. This allowed Hitler the leeway to re-arm and break the terms of the surrender. That is the lesson to be learned, not used as an excuse to go easy on the Putin regime in pursuit of a false peace.
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