Russia repositions border taking over more of Georgia overnight
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
I think that Russia's actions in the Ukraine are understandable and insofar as all they want is east Ukraine up to the Dneiper
If the pressure on Mariupol continues and Putin finally pushes on to Odessa and a land corridor to Crimea and Transnistria, would you still consider him justified for 'historical" and security reasons?
From ORAC's Mariupol link ...
He was referring to the training mission to the Ukraine.
Interesting little tidbit ... in 1961, on today's date, 13 August, the Berlin Wall went up.
'We are standing shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine while its borders are still threatened, for as long as its borders are threatened...'
- Michael Fallon, Defence Secretary
- Michael Fallon, Defence Secretary
Interesting little tidbit ... in 1961, on today's date, 13 August, the Berlin Wall went up.
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I think I've said before - if we leave Russia alone and stop imagining that it is somehow the USSR revisited, we will have no trouble
I think that Russia's actions in the Ukraine are understandable...
And no, as an American I'm NOT demanding the UK or anyone else to declare war. I am suggesting that the signs are very ominous and call for at least two actions:
1. tough economic sanctions against Russia
2. increased military preparedness
I don't see either happening.
Turkey and Russia actually have more in common than you might think, and Russia understands the Turks better that the US does. I said that their efforts in Turkey may have nothing to do with defence, and I think I am right. There are lots of things about Russia (and Turkey for that matter) that westerners simply do not understand and discount.
Neither side, however, appears to have any interest in the Russians at all apart from their gas. Even though Ukraine is not far away, it is still a matter of 0 interest to anyone here.
European issues in general are of little concern and people don't know about them. There are quite enough things to be worried about to the South and East.
The former communists, such as my in-laws, are all busy making money and buying second flats. Some proclaim themselves atheists to be shocking. The situation now is one where people have to work very hard but they are "making it". So it's not a great time for Russians to come along and exploit some ideological issue.
The Turks I speak to say "we favour the Americans then the Russians then back again - we are on our own side and our job is to play the great powers off against each other."
Plus the Russians support Assad, enemy #2, and that doesn't help them.
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Mr KenV's response pretty well typifies the American thinking - a total lack of understanding of Russia. I tried to point out in my previous post where and how we should be looking, but I doubt it would have any effect on Americans and others intent of the "evil Putin" stance.
Sanctions? Seriously? Do you even understand what the sanctions have done? Very little. Without the simultaneous oil price drop they would have achieved virtually nothing. Now oil has picked up a little.
More to the point the sanctions have somewhat played into Putin's hands. He had previously been trying to rebuild Russian local production and guide away from excessive imports, without much success. Now he has been able to ban much imported food and other items, so economic sanctions have less bite - and more to the point, they have encouraged local entrepreneurs to start producing local import substitution goods - exactly what Putin had been trying to do.
So good thinking America - that did lots to help.
I'm sorry, but so long as America - and to a lesser extent Britain misunderstand Russia's true motivation, then they will fail to have any effect on Putin's plans in Ukraine.
Have you not noticed that France and Germany are very unenthusiastic about these American-led sanctions. “What he wants is to remain influential. What Mr. Putin wants is that Ukraine not become a member of NATO. The idea of Mr. Putin is to not have an army at Russia’s borders.” That was President Hollande's statement.
You might want to try understanding that America's black and white take on the world is not shared elsewhere.
Sanctions? Seriously? Do you even understand what the sanctions have done? Very little. Without the simultaneous oil price drop they would have achieved virtually nothing. Now oil has picked up a little.
More to the point the sanctions have somewhat played into Putin's hands. He had previously been trying to rebuild Russian local production and guide away from excessive imports, without much success. Now he has been able to ban much imported food and other items, so economic sanctions have less bite - and more to the point, they have encouraged local entrepreneurs to start producing local import substitution goods - exactly what Putin had been trying to do.
So good thinking America - that did lots to help.
I'm sorry, but so long as America - and to a lesser extent Britain misunderstand Russia's true motivation, then they will fail to have any effect on Putin's plans in Ukraine.
Have you not noticed that France and Germany are very unenthusiastic about these American-led sanctions. “What he wants is to remain influential. What Mr. Putin wants is that Ukraine not become a member of NATO. The idea of Mr. Putin is to not have an army at Russia’s borders.” That was President Hollande's statement.
You might want to try understanding that America's black and white take on the world is not shared elsewhere.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Sanctions? Seriously? Do you even understand what the sanctions have done? Very little. Without the simultaneous oil price drop they would have achieved virtually nothing. Now oil has picked up a little.
There are those who are financial experts who would disagree with you...
The Streetwise Economist: Hey, It’s August: The Russian Economy Imitates the Kursk
FT: Russia is in trouble as energy prices fall
A Putin-like person will always turn whatever you do into "an attack" and blast the propaganda at his people. It's pathetic to think that there is any way to appease people like that or neutralise their version of the truth within their borders.
They understand weakness though, because they got into their positions by exploiting it a lot.
They understand weakness though, because they got into their positions by exploiting it a lot.
RF, it's when Putin turns the gas off to Western Europe and the Ukraine is when life become difficult.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Actually Air Pig, the last few years have been spent getting around that problem. Ukraine is now getting gas reverse fed from its neighbours. One of the reasons Gazprom is in trouble is their sales to the West are plummeting and they don't have the funds or expertise for lines to new markets in the East.
How Russian energy giant Gazprom lost $300bn | World news | The Guardian
Which is why things are getting nasty in Georgia.....
The Heavy-Handed Russian Move Nobody?s Talking About | The Diplomat
How Russian energy giant Gazprom lost $300bn | World news | The Guardian
Which is why things are getting nasty in Georgia.....
The Heavy-Handed Russian Move Nobody?s Talking About | The Diplomat
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90% of Ukraine's heavy industry, metal production is east of the Dnieper - that's what he wants back because it was largely Russian-developed. It was a fair percentage of Russia's industrial base. THat's why I say that once he gets to the natural border of the Dnieper, he will stop because there's no point in going further.
On the other hand.......
90% of Germany's heavy industry in the 1930s was in the Rhineland. Surely Adolf would stop there once he had militarized the Rhineland. Surely. And Sudetenland had a "natural" border. After taking that, surely there would be "no point in going further." Surely.
RF:-
Words to the effect that the writer doesn't see Putin being ousted from power as there is no-one else who is capable of taking his place? Hardly a wringing endorsement for your man. I find another statement in the main article:-
http://streetwiseprofessor.com/?p=9509
far more compelling, that Russian workers have the lowest productivity in Europe, being only 50% of the average, and 30% below Greece! That is an economy going to hell in a hand-basket, and the kind of thing that sends autocrats to war.
Why you keep harping on about his faith, the Orthodox Church, and how it is important that we understand that, I just don't understand. Plenty of tyrants have boasted exemplary church (or whatever other religious buildings) attendance, especially in Latin America. I wouldn't suggest that their torture chambers, execution blocks, or labour camps were any more salubrious than those of their agnostic co-tyrants.
This man has form and soon has to pull myriad rabbits out of many hats. We need to be ready for that.
Read the last two sentences of what you quoted
http://streetwiseprofessor.com/?p=9509
far more compelling, that Russian workers have the lowest productivity in Europe, being only 50% of the average, and 30% below Greece! That is an economy going to hell in a hand-basket, and the kind of thing that sends autocrats to war.
Why you keep harping on about his faith, the Orthodox Church, and how it is important that we understand that, I just don't understand. Plenty of tyrants have boasted exemplary church (or whatever other religious buildings) attendance, especially in Latin America. I wouldn't suggest that their torture chambers, execution blocks, or labour camps were any more salubrious than those of their agnostic co-tyrants.
This man has form and soon has to pull myriad rabbits out of many hats. We need to be ready for that.
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Further to my question to RF about Mariupol.... Funny old thing....
The Times today: Ukraine rebels are preparing for war
Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine have cancelled all military leave and are mobilising for “full combat readiness”, a Kremlin-run television station reported. The announcement came hours after President Putin summoned his prime minister, defence minister and security chiefs for an emergency meeting as fighting flared in the region.
Ukraine has blamed the upsurge in violence on pro-Russian forces, claiming that Ukrainian troops were under increasingly intense fire from heavy weapons, banned under a treaty signed in Minsk last February. “The shelling is carried out around the clock using large-calibre artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, prohibited by the Minsk agreements,” Oleksander Turchynov, the head of Ukraine’s national security and defence council, said yesterday. “During the day, the enemy carried out 153 artillery attacks.”.......
Zvezda, a television network run by the Russian ministry of defence, reported claims that the self-proclaimed separatist “Donetsk People’s Republic” was preparing for combat readiness. It quoted the republic’s envoy to the peace talks, Denis Pushilin, who said war could flare up at any moment. All leave has been cancelled for the rebel-backed soldiers throughout August so they can be deployed at short notice.
In a report issued on Wednesday night, the OSCE said it had discovered several empty storage facilities, where rebels must keep their heavy weapons in accordance with the peace treaty.........Observers said they had watched a column of rebel selfpropelled howitzers moving towards the front line until insurgents opened fire on them. Ukraine said five regular army soldiers had been killed and another 42 wounded since militia troops launched a tank assault last Monday on Ukrainian fortifications outside the village of Starohnativka, between the rebel capital Donetsk and the government port of Mariupol..........
The Times today: Ukraine rebels are preparing for war
Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine have cancelled all military leave and are mobilising for “full combat readiness”, a Kremlin-run television station reported. The announcement came hours after President Putin summoned his prime minister, defence minister and security chiefs for an emergency meeting as fighting flared in the region.
Ukraine has blamed the upsurge in violence on pro-Russian forces, claiming that Ukrainian troops were under increasingly intense fire from heavy weapons, banned under a treaty signed in Minsk last February. “The shelling is carried out around the clock using large-calibre artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, prohibited by the Minsk agreements,” Oleksander Turchynov, the head of Ukraine’s national security and defence council, said yesterday. “During the day, the enemy carried out 153 artillery attacks.”.......
Zvezda, a television network run by the Russian ministry of defence, reported claims that the self-proclaimed separatist “Donetsk People’s Republic” was preparing for combat readiness. It quoted the republic’s envoy to the peace talks, Denis Pushilin, who said war could flare up at any moment. All leave has been cancelled for the rebel-backed soldiers throughout August so they can be deployed at short notice.
In a report issued on Wednesday night, the OSCE said it had discovered several empty storage facilities, where rebels must keep their heavy weapons in accordance with the peace treaty.........Observers said they had watched a column of rebel selfpropelled howitzers moving towards the front line until insurgents opened fire on them. Ukraine said five regular army soldiers had been killed and another 42 wounded since militia troops launched a tank assault last Monday on Ukrainian fortifications outside the village of Starohnativka, between the rebel capital Donetsk and the government port of Mariupol..........
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Kremlin Elite Engaged In Search For Putin’s Replacement, Piontkovsky Says
Both Vladimir Putin’s plans for Ukraine – his initial one of absorbing much of Ukraine and his “Plan B” of having the West force Ukraine into agreeing to make concessions– have failed, Andrey Piontkovsky says; and “the interests of Putin and his closest entourage” now “seriously diverge", with the latter searching for his replacement.
In a comment for Apostrophe.com.ua, the Russian analyst says that the only things Putin can try is to step up his aggression or stage a provocation to prompt the West to desert Ukraine. If he does the former and tries to seize Mariupol or a land corridor to Crimea, the West has said it will increase sanctions and sell lethal arms to Ukraine. “But this is not all the West’s response could be,” Piontkovsky continues. Other options include: “the seizure of the accounts of Russian officials and oligarchs in Western banks, stepping up the pressure against Moscow regarding the shooting down of the Malaysian airliner, the Litvinenko murder and a mass of other things.”
But not increasing his acts of aggression also constitutes a threat to Putin “as a man responsible for a serious foreign policy defeat.” He thus doesn’t want to back down, but for his entourage, “military escalation is absolutely unacceptable for Putin’s entourage and for the majority of the Russian political establishment.” Those people “understand perfectly well that this will lead to their loss of billions of dollars and to the rapid overthrow of the regime,” Piontkovsky says. But if Putin were to suddenly change course, he would in the eyes of those around him be “guilty of a defeat,” and they would desert him.
It is worth remembering what happened to Nikita Khrushchev after the Cuban missile crisis, the analyst continues. “He was forced to pull back after which his days in power were numbered … for the establishment, the lesser evil is to withdraw, part ways with Putin, and establish some kind of peaceful coexistence with the West.”
Members of the Russian elite have been sending signals to the West in this regard for several months, Piontkovsky says. Now, the situation has become more serious; and he suggested that “everything will be resolved already in the coming weeks.” If Putin is going to expand his aggressive actions in Ukraine, he will have to do so in August or September. “October is not the season for a military advance.” But what may be even more likely, the Kremlin leader may try to stage “an enormous provocation” designed to shift the blame on Kyiv and thus cost Ukraine the support it has in the West.
Ukrainian leaders have to be very aware of this danger and act with restraint and care on the battlefield lest they fall into a trap, he says. But at the same time, they need to launch “an aggressive diplomatic offensive.” They must tell the UN Security Council that Moscow is escalating its aggression. What Moscow will do next is “difficult to predict now because the Kremlin ‘top’ is in a panic,” Piontkovsky argues, as shown by Naryshkin’s article on the burning of foodstuffs at the border and Lavrov’s behavior at a press conference after meeting with Saudi officials.
The Russian analyst suggests that “Moscow understands” that it has no really good options in Ukraine and consequently many there are considering what to do in the Russian capital. If his entourage can force Putin out, Piontkovsky says, “the most probable figure” to replace him is Sergey Ivanov. “Formally, [Ivanov] occupies a non-political post as head of the Presidential Administration. Nevertheless, he unceasingly gives interviews to foreign media” in which he portrays himself as someone who could be “a constructive partner for the West.”
“Will Putin’s departure change Moscow’s policy?” Piontkovsky asks rhetorically, answering that “undoubtedly” it will even though those who will replace him will come out of the same part of the elite he did. And in support of that argument he cites what happened after Stalin died. Stalin’s successors “essentially changed the foreign policy of the USSR,” he writes. “The same thing will happen in our case. A 20th congress of the United Russia Party will take place at which the serious errors of Comrade Putin in the Ukrainian question will be condemned.”
Panic in the Kremlin
What the West Gets Wrong About Russia
RUSSIA ECONOMY HITS PERFECT STORM
Both Vladimir Putin’s plans for Ukraine – his initial one of absorbing much of Ukraine and his “Plan B” of having the West force Ukraine into agreeing to make concessions– have failed, Andrey Piontkovsky says; and “the interests of Putin and his closest entourage” now “seriously diverge", with the latter searching for his replacement.
In a comment for Apostrophe.com.ua, the Russian analyst says that the only things Putin can try is to step up his aggression or stage a provocation to prompt the West to desert Ukraine. If he does the former and tries to seize Mariupol or a land corridor to Crimea, the West has said it will increase sanctions and sell lethal arms to Ukraine. “But this is not all the West’s response could be,” Piontkovsky continues. Other options include: “the seizure of the accounts of Russian officials and oligarchs in Western banks, stepping up the pressure against Moscow regarding the shooting down of the Malaysian airliner, the Litvinenko murder and a mass of other things.”
But not increasing his acts of aggression also constitutes a threat to Putin “as a man responsible for a serious foreign policy defeat.” He thus doesn’t want to back down, but for his entourage, “military escalation is absolutely unacceptable for Putin’s entourage and for the majority of the Russian political establishment.” Those people “understand perfectly well that this will lead to their loss of billions of dollars and to the rapid overthrow of the regime,” Piontkovsky says. But if Putin were to suddenly change course, he would in the eyes of those around him be “guilty of a defeat,” and they would desert him.
It is worth remembering what happened to Nikita Khrushchev after the Cuban missile crisis, the analyst continues. “He was forced to pull back after which his days in power were numbered … for the establishment, the lesser evil is to withdraw, part ways with Putin, and establish some kind of peaceful coexistence with the West.”
Members of the Russian elite have been sending signals to the West in this regard for several months, Piontkovsky says. Now, the situation has become more serious; and he suggested that “everything will be resolved already in the coming weeks.” If Putin is going to expand his aggressive actions in Ukraine, he will have to do so in August or September. “October is not the season for a military advance.” But what may be even more likely, the Kremlin leader may try to stage “an enormous provocation” designed to shift the blame on Kyiv and thus cost Ukraine the support it has in the West.
Ukrainian leaders have to be very aware of this danger and act with restraint and care on the battlefield lest they fall into a trap, he says. But at the same time, they need to launch “an aggressive diplomatic offensive.” They must tell the UN Security Council that Moscow is escalating its aggression. What Moscow will do next is “difficult to predict now because the Kremlin ‘top’ is in a panic,” Piontkovsky argues, as shown by Naryshkin’s article on the burning of foodstuffs at the border and Lavrov’s behavior at a press conference after meeting with Saudi officials.
The Russian analyst suggests that “Moscow understands” that it has no really good options in Ukraine and consequently many there are considering what to do in the Russian capital. If his entourage can force Putin out, Piontkovsky says, “the most probable figure” to replace him is Sergey Ivanov. “Formally, [Ivanov] occupies a non-political post as head of the Presidential Administration. Nevertheless, he unceasingly gives interviews to foreign media” in which he portrays himself as someone who could be “a constructive partner for the West.”
“Will Putin’s departure change Moscow’s policy?” Piontkovsky asks rhetorically, answering that “undoubtedly” it will even though those who will replace him will come out of the same part of the elite he did. And in support of that argument he cites what happened after Stalin died. Stalin’s successors “essentially changed the foreign policy of the USSR,” he writes. “The same thing will happen in our case. A 20th congress of the United Russia Party will take place at which the serious errors of Comrade Putin in the Ukrainian question will be condemned.”
Panic in the Kremlin
What the West Gets Wrong About Russia
RUSSIA ECONOMY HITS PERFECT STORM
Last edited by ORAC; 14th Aug 2015 at 10:53.
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Its a difficult case, but there could be another angle.
Theres a couple of reasons I believe western troops on the ground both in Georgia and Ukraine. The first is, a I don't believe Russia with take them on, its not politically expedient and their not ready for that.
But at the end of the day, he wants both of them back in his sphere of influence, the best way to do that is to have the people demand it.
As the crisis drags on, the country's can't progress, sooner or later financially they become basket cases, and become ungovernable.
Essentially people want to be left alone to live how they see fit. If feeding their family's and getting the basics means leaning to Russia, they will do that.
At the moment, we have limited time to show dividends that leaning towards Europe is best, if it doesn't, they will go the other way. Ukraine is probably worse off than Georgia. Ukraine has its troops spread out and needs the help of undesirables.
Western troops on the ground effectively allows the country a chance to move on like west Germany after WW2.
Theres a couple of reasons I believe western troops on the ground both in Georgia and Ukraine. The first is, a I don't believe Russia with take them on, its not politically expedient and their not ready for that.
But at the end of the day, he wants both of them back in his sphere of influence, the best way to do that is to have the people demand it.
As the crisis drags on, the country's can't progress, sooner or later financially they become basket cases, and become ungovernable.
Essentially people want to be left alone to live how they see fit. If feeding their family's and getting the basics means leaning to Russia, they will do that.
At the moment, we have limited time to show dividends that leaning towards Europe is best, if it doesn't, they will go the other way. Ukraine is probably worse off than Georgia. Ukraine has its troops spread out and needs the help of undesirables.
Western troops on the ground effectively allows the country a chance to move on like west Germany after WW2.
Western troops on the ground effectively allows the country a chance to move on like west Germany after WW2.
That's the analogy to Germany. I don't see a reunification of Ukraine if it formally splits. I think the analogy and model break down on a lot of levels.
Also, I honestly think that deploying troops, specifically American troops, into the Ukraine plays in to Putin's hands politically.
Edit To Add: this is all happening in Europe, so what do the European leading nations think? Are they willing to put their troops into Ukraine? If not, why should Americans do so? I see no reason.
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Also, I honestly think that deploying troops, specifically American troops, into the Ukraine plays in to Putin's hands politically.
On the other hand, American troops are already on the ground in Ukraine. So far they are just providing training. So far.