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Old 21st Mar 2017, 22:13   #10781 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by Rob Courtney View Post
Well that depends, losing your most profitable market can make people move really fast and the agreement needs only be around continuing not to apply quotas.
Exactly. Remember that nasty 44 per cent figure?

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Well Germany manages to trade pretty freely with the rest of the world from within the single market much to the chagrin of protectionists like Trump.

Perhaps we just don't produce what the rest of the world wants to buy these days in enough volume, in good time, and at the right price?
That is simply too much logic to be accepted in this thread. Try to come up with a more outlandish theory.
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Old 21st Mar 2017, 22:24   #10782 (permalink)
 
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To do that would be a tremendous gamble, as it would hurt the UK more than it would damage Europe. I sincerely hope that HMG is not planning on playing Russian roulette with UK employee's jobs to that extent - it would be irresponsible in the extreme, if she lost the gamble that could be the one thing that might help Corbyn gain power - and none of us want that, surely.
Would it hurt the UK more? I dont think so. The EU is already going to lose 12% of its annual income when we stop payments but could it afford to lose the billions it makes on trade with the UK.

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Exactly. Remember that nasty 44 per cent figure?
You are getting mixed up with trade percentages and profitability. We run a massive deficit with the EU and money tends to focus minds pretty quickly. Go back and look at those trade figures I posted the last time you made that mistake.

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That is simply too much logic to be accepted in this thread. Try to come up with a more outlandish theory.
You have to ask yourself why Germany manages to sell so much? the answer of couse is that a hugely undervalued currency helps it export more than it ever has done at the expense of poorer countries such as Greece Portugal etc. Is that enough logic for you?
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Old 21st Mar 2017, 23:20   #10783 (permalink)
 
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the answer of couse is that a hugely undervalued currency helps it export more than it ever has done at the expense of poorer countries such as Greece Portugal etc.
No. The last time I checked, Greece and Portugal have exactly the same, as you say, undervalued currency. Besides, it is not terribly creative that every country that has a poorly performing economy complains about allegedly undervalued currencies of other countries instead of becoming more creative, train a more skilled workforce, improve quality etc.

As for the rest, let's wait and see. Contrary to you belief, nobody in the EU is wetting his pants, but everbody is fairly relaxed about who has to loose more. I appreciate it is difficult to believe if your daily staple is Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph, so it is probably wise to simply wait and see.
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Old 21st Mar 2017, 23:53   #10784 (permalink)
 
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Britain has a long proven record of ultimately coming out on top when it comes to European adventures. I think we in the UK have every reason to sit back smugly and watch the EU struggle to come to terms with our leaving.
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Old 22nd Mar 2017, 00:06   #10785 (permalink)
 
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No. The last time I checked, Greece and Portugal have exactly the same, as you say, undervalued currency. Besides, it is not terribly creative that every country that has a poorly performing economy complains about allegedly undervalued currencies of other countries instead of becoming more creative, train a more skilled workforce, improve quality etc.
You obviously do not understand how a weak currency works for a industialised economy like Germany but harms the more sedate economies such as Greece. Take a look on the roads the next time you go out, Loads of BMW, Audis and the like. Now ask yourself why it wasnt like that 20 years ago. The reason of course was that the DM was a lot stonger in them days making the cars far more expensive and out of the reach of most people. when the Greeks and the rest got into trouble they could not devalue their currencies and trade themselves out of it because they didnt control it.
The Euro is designed for the German and northern European countries, its weakness when compared to their old currencies helps exports. this is why we import far more from the EU than we export. Its is only now that the pound has devalued that we are beginning to match the exchange rates of the late 1980s/ early 1990s and guess what? our exports are beginning to take off again because we are suddenly competetive again.
It also makes our home produced goods competetive against imports meaning we start to buy more.

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As for the rest, let's wait and see. Contrary to you belief, nobody in the EU is wetting his pants, but everbody is fairly relaxed about who has to loose more. I appreciate it is difficult to believe if your daily staple is Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph, so it is probably wise to simply wait and see.
As you say lets wait and see, I work for a company whos head office is in an EU country and my opposite numbers over there are not as cock sure as you seem to be. After all if they are so smug then why are they throwing threats around promising to punish us because we dared to leave?
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Old 22nd Mar 2017, 00:37   #10786 (permalink)
 
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I hope we don't ask for anything. The simpler the negotiations the better. A book title by Douglas Adams describes our parting line: "So long and thanks for all the fish." You start by asking for nothing and staying quiet; the first to speak loses. Besides, nothing will be decided until the French and German elections are over. It's the Germans who have the most to win and lose from a poor deal with us and they are going to pick up the tab anyway. So it doesn't really matter what the drunken arse Junker or the Brit hating barnacle say - they don't have the German's cheque book.

When the other side do ask for something, we demand parity/reciprocity. We don't even have to be there to have talks. And they can whistle out of their arses for the leaving bill until they come up with audited accounts. Would you pay a bill where the numbers don't add up? It's just a shame they haven't had any for 22 years.

PM
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Old 22nd Mar 2017, 05:44   #10787 (permalink)
 
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Well Germany manages to trade pretty freely with the rest of the world from within the single market much to the chagrin of protectionists like Trump.
No they don't. They have to charge punitive tariffs on goods from outside the EU and aren't allowed to make any FTAs.
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Old 22nd Mar 2017, 07:36   #10788 (permalink)
 
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Pace
You will have to do more to help me understand some of your points.

"From the EUs point of view they will want us in the single market". Initially they did. But having failed to make a deal with Cameron that was acceptable to enough of the British people they accept that we are leaving the EU and hence the sm. As I said before, according to the French foreign office analysis (oh, and it's in the HM Treasury pre-referendum analysis too), only EU members are in the sm: all others whether EFTA members, Switzerland, Canada, USA etc just have qualified 'access' (Norway through EFTA, Switzerland through a series of bi-lateral agreements, Canada through CETA, USA through WTO rules).

"Trying to work out a free trade agreement is long winded and complicated and will take far longer than 2 years to get all the ducks in line". I agree that for current 3rd parties that is the case (of note CETA only took 3 years, the additional 4 were EU concerns over Canada's human rights record - yes you read that right!, and internal EU wrangling over the dispute resolution mechanism - which, in the case of CETA, does not involve the CJEU). UK, as you point out is already fully EU compliant, so should take less than Canada/CETA.

"They may even bespoke it with a change in freedom of movement". As a couple of others have said, what has FoM got to do with trade? Well in my view something and nothing*. It's something because the EU make it so (4 freedoms mantra - even though they seem to have dragged their heels for years on freedom of services which was of particular importance to UK as you rightly point out) and nothing because it is possible to do a FTA without FoM (ie CETA). Albeit CETA isn't 100% free trade (about 97% for goods and 0 for services). So we will be negotiating with the EU to agree where to set the line on freedom (anything less than 100% = control) to trade goods and services for the amount of control (any amount of control below total exclusion is a move towards freedom) on movement of workers.

"David Davis who I do listen to said it maybe many years before we control EU immigration". Yes, because he suggests that a transition will be necessary (if nothing else because it's sensible), and because he knows that our economy still has a demand for workers.

"As is a cold exit", I'll add that to the growing list of hard, soft, red, white, blue, ordered, cushioned, and clean!

Regards
Batco
(out to a meeting in 10min)
* more to follow on this

Last edited by BATCO; 23rd Mar 2017 at 07:12.
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Old 22nd Mar 2017, 08:04   #10789 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by virginblue View Post
No. The last time I checked, Greece and Portugal have exactly the same, as you say, undervalued currency. Besides, it is not terribly creative that every country that has a poorly performing economy complains about allegedly undervalued currencies of other countries instead of becoming more creative, train a more skilled workforce, improve quality etc.

As for the rest, let's wait and see. Contrary to you belief, nobody in the EU is wetting his pants, but everbody is fairly relaxed about who has to loose more. I appreciate it is difficult to believe if your daily staple is Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph, so it is probably wise to simply wait and see.
It is impossible to shift hardened Brexiteers from their position, no matter how logical the argument.

Clearly, so far as exporting is concerned, the whole of Euroland is on a totally level playing field. When I worked for a UK subsidiary of a German company, and Sterling was going through one of it's regular sticky patches we, in UK asked for help from the parent to enable us to offset otherwise inevitable price increases in Sterling terms to UK customers. We were told that it's not their (the German) company's fault that the UK wasn't inside the Eurozone and it was our problem. Only the quality of the product and trimming margins kept the business in the UK stable.

I imagine the likes of Sytner (BMW) dealership in UK will be getting a similar message from BMW.

The problem with Greece and some of the other southern European countries is that they have historically had a poor record of quality, and on time delivery - so companies that could invest in production and therefore create export markets have singularly failed to do so. (Why do BMW or PSA not make cars in Greece?). The problem cannot be laid at the door of German industry; they are successful because they have invested and developed, and traded on "quality made in Germany" (even though not always the case). They have not allowed their industry to be flogged off wholesale, and production shifted abroad. That is the UK model that next to no one else in Europe subscribes to.

Despite Brexiteer's protestations to the contrary there is no perceivable appetite within Europe to bend over backwards to satisfy UK demands. I suspect many in Europe feel the UK has held the EU back, and it will work better without UK. I suspect many of those would feel similarly about other members of the "awkward squad", such as Denmark, Poland and Hungary.
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Old 22nd Mar 2017, 08:54   #10790 (permalink)
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
It is impossible to shift hardened Brexiteers from their position, no matter how logical the argument.
A bit of a sweeping generalisation and very heavily laced with irony.

Both sides have entrenched viewpoints and both sides have individuals whose stance is not being shifted by logical argument.
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Old 22nd Mar 2017, 10:03   #10791 (permalink)
 
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SFFP

It's two things the old hand problem one sees a palm the other the back both see a hand but a very different picture and for any relationship you both have to want the same things

The group of sixty set up in the Conservative party are the hardcore element in government who make a compromise brexit impossible
They do have an xenophobic view of the EU and I don't use the word in a traditional way and do in many instances harp back to a bygone era of the UK

Batco

There really is no problem with us exiting the EU and being accommodated in the single market! As a transition arrangement
That would suit the EU, the negotiating time scale and frankly us as well as the financial world market judges who would jump for joy taking that route to brexit

You know perfectly well if your honest how the markets would respond on the value of the pound

You cannot go back to pre brexit vote Cameron negotiations on the single market as it was a completely different situation to now
Secondly we would be negotiating on a single market transition on a contract period
This would allow the EU to make adjustments reflecting that transition rather than long term membership
I very much doubt a free trade agreement
The problem with the single Market! Hard brexiteers view it with their xenophobic attitude to all things EU
Just the name instils hatred
The 60 would be up in anger at the thought ? But it's not their country their decision
To discount the single market is a political decision not an economic decision as is placing EU immigration as a red line over the economy

Any political decision is wrong unless it's based on sound economics and only then do you decide whether a political decision can be afforded
In this situation it cannot be afforded either the cost or the divisions amongst the population of the UK as a whole

Sadly there are too many political decisions in this brexit such as the childish threatening to leave with no agreement when you have not even thoroughly researched and costed that option

Last edited by Pace; 22nd Mar 2017 at 10:26.
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Old 22nd Mar 2017, 10:25   #10792 (permalink)
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Let's not get distracted into the Eurozone problems. After all, the UK was and never will be a member - even if we had to pay at least part of the resulting costs.
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Old 22nd Mar 2017, 10:26   #10793 (permalink)
 
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£300 million investment in UK car factory

You know the drill:
-nasty foreigners investing
-it's because of the single market
-it will be low paid jobs
-it's Trump
-they are just buying up the UK on the cheap
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Old 22nd Mar 2017, 10:46   #10794 (permalink)
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Just like the BBC TV this morning where the reporter attributed the rise in inflation to Brexit - with the immediately following recorded report and graph explained it was mainly due to the world market rise in the price of oil and the cost of imported vegetables because the poor weather in Spain.
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Old 22nd Mar 2017, 10:50   #10795 (permalink)
 
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Clearly, so far as exporting is concerned, the whole of Euroland is on a totally level playing field. When I worked for a UK subsidiary of a German company, and Sterling was going through one of it's regular sticky patches we, in UK asked for help from the parent to enable us to offset otherwise inevitable price increases in Sterling terms to UK customers. We were told that it's not their (the German) company's fault that the UK wasn't inside the Eurozone and it was our problem. Only the quality of the product and trimming margins kept the business in the UK stable.
So are you tellimg me that the value of the Euro has not helped countries like Germany at the expense of Greece? The issue with the pound was its relative strength aginst the Euro. This is why the German car industry has been so successful over here for the last 20 years or so. Only now are we seeing a return to the kind of parity that we had prior to the Euro.

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Despite Brexiteer's protestations to the contrary there is no perceivable appetite within Europe to bend over backwards to satisfy UK demands. I suspect many in Europe feel the UK has held the EU back, and it will work better without UK. I suspect many of those would feel similarly about other members of the "awkward squad", such as Denmark, Poland and Hungary.
What demands would they be then? We have not even started negotiations yet so you must have a pretty good source in UK govt?
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Old 22nd Mar 2017, 11:05   #10796 (permalink)
 
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Just like the BBC TV this morning where the reporter attributed the rise in inflation to Brexit - with the immediately following recorded report and graph explained it was mainly due to the world market rise in the price of oil and the cost of imported vegetables because the poor weather in Spain.
Orac that really made me laugh ))
The fact that we have dropped from one the worlds best performing currencies to the third worst is all down to the weather in Spain ))) I have heard it all now

So we now change from project fear to the gang of 60s project fake in the media
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Old 22nd Mar 2017, 11:12   #10797 (permalink)
 
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No that's not what he's saying at all Pace. I'm actually embarrassed for you.

Higher food costs, an end to three years of deep discounting by supermarkets, the fall in the pound and the increase in petrol have all conspired to increase inflation.

But keep telling us that it's down to just the crash in the pound. That same crashed pound that has produced the highest UK export level in over two years.
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Old 22nd Mar 2017, 11:14   #10798 (permalink)
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UK airlines told to move to EU or be forced to axe services
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Old 22nd Mar 2017, 11:17   #10799 (permalink)
 
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I'm surprised that none of the Guardianistas have picked up on this:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...MCNEWEML6619I2

Oooh out of 6,000 odd employees the ones concerned with Euro based trading will move to the Eurozone. Nothing to see here, move along please.....
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Old 22nd Mar 2017, 11:29   #10800 (permalink)
 
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ORAC: negotiations have not begun. Nobody knows what will or won't happen. Worst case you'll need a mainland base. The Guardian and other leftist outlets are using this to push their project fear.

Let's hypothetically look at an example. We will call it difficultJet. difficultJet is registered in England, with a subsidiary in Switzerland.

difficultJet UK operated UK domestics, flights to and from the UK to EU and Switzerland and intra EU flights. MdifficultJet Swiss operated Swiss to EU and Swiss to UK flights.

Now, where it gets difficult is the UK operation flying intra EU flights. This will require a new offshoot to be formed: difficultJet EU who will operate EU to EU and EU to UK flights. It will require a third AOC to be set up. Happily difficultJet already has 2 AOCs and the 3rd AOC will be rather simple to set up and maintain. Postholders will be required to inspect and sign off documents but all of the hard work would be done in the Dump on the Hump, where it is based.

difficultJet are happy because it allows UK-EU, UK-UK, EU-EU, EU-CH and CH-CH flights to be operated. difficultJet are not happy that their aircraft and crew may not be as interchangeable as they once were. They could also charge huge franchise fees like Starbucks do to use the difficultJet branding should the UK become a super low tax economy.

Or, a deal could be struck allowing difficultJet UK and difficultJet SWISS to continue as is.
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