Economic Downturn = No FI Vacancies?

[mustflywillfly]

Dear All,

The economy is slowing big time, it is more likely then ever that we will be in a recession by Summer. Airlines are starting to suffer:

DUBLIN, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Airline Ryanair <RYA.I> posted a sharper than expected drop in third-quarter net profit on Monday and warned high oil prices, an economic slowdown in the UK and weak sterling meant profits may fall up to 50 percent next year. Europe's biggest low-cost carrier said excluding a one-off gain from the sale of aircraft net profit in the three months to the end of December fell 27 percent to 35 million euros ($52
million) as winter fares fell almost 5 percent.

That was below an average forecast of 41.8 million euros and in line with the lowest estimate in a Reuters poll of 10 analysts. Ryanair stuck to its full-year forecast for a 17.5 percent rise in the year to the end of March. It warned, however, there was a "significant chance" profits would fall in its 2008/2009 business year.

"The European airline sector is presently facing one of these cyclical downturns, with possibility of a "perfect storm" of higher oil prices, poor consumer demand, weaker sterling and higher costs," the airline said in a statement. According to the most optimistic scenario, profit next year
could grow 6 percent to 500 million euros if average ticket prices, or yields, stay flat and oil prices drop to $75 a barrel. "But at our most conservative, if forward oil prices remain at $85, and consumer sentiment/sterling weakness leads to a 5 percent reduction in yields, then profits in the coming year
could fall by as much as 50 percent to as low as 235 million euros (excluding profits from aircraft disposals)," it said. The company also said it planned to spend up to 200 million euros buying back shares which, based on its current share price, would equate to 3 percent of Ryanair's share capital. Ryanair's stock has fallen 18 percent since the start of the year due to fears over the impact of rising energy costs and the company's limited fuel hedging for the year starting April 2008. "We remain essentially unhedged for next year," Ryanair said on Monday.

I know we don't have a crystal ball but against this economic backdrop do you think this spells disaster for FI vacancies or the supposed FI shortage?

By October I will be popping out the system with an FI(R) and will be looking for employment. Ouch. Perhaps I should pull the plug on my dream and not bother with the CPL or FI(R) and just stick to flying as a hobby?

Any thoughts?

MFWF:ok:

[kwachon]

Since when do Ryanair dictate the downturn, its a mighty big world out there not just a loco saturated Europe. Go west young man!

[TheOddOne]

I know we don't have a crystal ball but against this economic backdrop do you think this spells disaster for FI vacancies or the supposed FI shortage?

By October I will be popping out the system with an FI(R) and will be looking for employment. Ouch. Perhaps I should pull the plug on my dream and not bother with the CPL or FI(R) and just stick to flying as a hobby?

Any thoughts?

Yes!

Firstly, much depends upon where you want to work as an FI. If you're planning Cornwall or the Outer Hebrides, then not so good finding a job, anywhere around London or another large conurbation, much better.

Secondly, October is a long way away for accurate forecasts of PPL training demand.

Thirdly, NEVER forget that MOL has his own agenda and way of doing things. It might just suit his agenda to 'big up' a recession.

Fourthly, October isn't the best time to think of looking for FI work in any economic climate. I started in September and managed to get a few good weeks in before the Winter weather and lack of daylight intruded. A school might take you on on a 'get paid if you fly' basis but probably not on a salary until the Spring. They're going to give priority to their existing FIs. In any event, you normally start out doing trial lessons then convert them yourself into students. You might be lucky and pick up a few students from another instructor who has just left. If you're starting in October, be prepared for a lack of income until the Spring. That said, the relatively leisurely pace might suit to enable you to work on your instructing skills is a more measured way.

If you think you can cope financially, definitely go for it! As you may have read here and elsewhere, instructing will never make you rich. (Money-wise that is, riches beyond measure in other ways...)

TheOddOne

[mustflywillfly]

I will be South Coast based - Bournemouth / Old Sarum / Popham / Thruxton / Goodwood would be ideal. Of course I will move wherever the work is.

I could survive on £500 a month between October and Spring if needs be (I have a girlfriend supporting me through the career change).

My head is spinning at the moment as I am making the career change in April and I could still pull out. The heart is saying go for it, the head is saying "are you mad - we are heading for a recession".

It would be interesting to know what the supply and demand situation is like at the moment and if any FTO / Clubs have started forecasting a major downturn in students and therefore instructor requirement. Surely some must plan ahead (even without a functioning Mk1 Crystal Ball, nobody can deny that the economy is heading the wrong way).

Cheers MFWF

[CaptCFI]

I have received more unsolicited e-mails from flight schools in the USA looking for Flight Instructors in the past month than I have ever had. These schools are offering salaries and many benifits. The skies and schools here in the southwest of the USA are full of Indian and Chinese students. I agree with the previous comment of "Go West Young Man"

[VFE]

I wouldn't read too much into the Ryanair propaganda mill today - all they're basically saying is that this past year they didn't make as much money as they normally do. They are still in profit. Those in the flight training industry would class ANY profit as a birthday present! But to answer your question, any downturn in the airline industry or any national recession for that matter, if it were to happen, will be unlikely to affect you before October.

VFE.

[18greens]

MFWF, As long as the avarage pay for an FI is £10kpa there will always be a shortage of FIs.

Don't worry, there will be a job for you in October.

[VFE]

I think (based on what I know) that average flight pay for a full time FI(R) these days is slightly more than that figure. Check circa £15K after flight pay. £10K is certainly under the mark methinks. Bottom line is - fight for your terms and conditions... you get nowt for askin' and they can only say "no" so don't get mugged off just because you're a newbie!

VFE.

[llanfairpg]

Since when do Ryanair dictate the downturn

Maybe not but O'Leary read the aviation market better than the so called aviation professionals did over the last 12 years. Now when O'Leary speaks the industry listens.

[BEagle]

Not much sign of an economic downturn on the packed LH flight I was on today from BHX-FRA.

Perhaps people are finally waking up to the true awfulness of flying with Ryanair? Personally I'd sooner eat my own poo than set foot in one of O'Leary's aeroplanes.

[18greens]

Ok VFE

MFWF, As long as the avarage pay for an FI is £15kpa there will always be a shortage of FIs.

Don't worry, there will be a job for you in October.

And VFE is right, make sure you get a decent deal - don't fly for free, don't pay for your checkouts or your uniform. Apply to a range of schools to get a measure of their packages. And you will love it.

[mustflywillfly]

Thanks for all the replies.

Well here I sit, another dull day in one of her Majesty's magnolia offices, desk bound and bored to tears. Economic downturn or not I am going for it! I have been flying since I was 17 courtesy of an RAF Scholarship and although I haven't flown for a year due to a few little snags I am itching to get airborne again.

£10k - £15k would be fine as long as long as it is on retainer and not OTE!

Thanks again.

MFWF :ok:

[BristolScout]

There is a shortage of instructors in the UK. The trick is to be prepared to go anywhere within these sceptred isles to get the first job, although it may entail leaving family, friends etc. and drinking different beer for a few months. Once you have some experience under your belt, you can look around for something closer to home.

[18greens]

MFWF

'as long as it is retainer not OTE'

Sorry to disappoint you again but I'm afraid most schools pay by the hour flown. Some will offer salaries or £500 per month plus flying pay but they tend to go to the more experienced instructors (derestricted with No Instrument restiction ). It will take you about a year to reach this level of experience at a reasonable school.

At the last school I taught at there were no intrument instuctors becuase it cost £1000 to get the restriction removed and the school only paid £5 per hour more for the lessons. On basic economics the hour builders figured they would never get it back.

Go and talk to some cfis and find out what they say.

There have been threads on flying pay on PPRUNE.

If you want real money do your FI at DEFTS and try to get a job there after. I believe they pay reasonably well (22K+).

Good luck.

[VFE]

Not strictly true about the retainers Mr.Greens.

As an FI(R) I had offers for a retainer of £500 and £750 per month..... together with flight pay above the £10 mark. But not without haggling!

VFE.

[mustflywillfly]

Working at DEFTS would be outstanding!

I graduated from JEFTS in Nov 2000 and have a huge amount of respect for the instructors there. If it were possible to do the FI rating at DEFTS and work there I would bite their hand off. I think Babcock are the bods I would need to contact?

Anyone have any contacts there? fish fish fish

Cheers

MFWF

[timzsta]

What recession? The club I am flying at has not had so many students for several years. And when not flying I drive for a parcel firm - and given the amount of stuff we are delivering and the rate of expansion of the business accross the UK, I can assure it doesn't feel to me like we are in a recession!

[porridge]

Fact there is a world-wide shortage of instructors, especially experienced ones who are prepared to work for minimal wages, but a shortage nevertheless!

[VFE]

Just like there's a shortage of airline pilots - yeah, experienced airline pilots!

VFE.

[BristolScout]

There is a reason that airlines prefer experienced pilots and it's not too hard to work out. I think that the current generation of wannabees needs to accept that the halcyon period when airlines hired pilots with just the basic licence requirements was a one-off. It's now back to the hard slog, as it used to be.

[VFE]

The self improver route still exists just in a slightly different form. I don't know anyone from a modular flight training background who has got an airline job without first doing aerial work of some description or instructing, and then first stepping up to small turbine operations. A jet job straight from training usually remains the domain of the upper echelon of society who've come straight from OATS with money to burn on a self-funded TR... and even for those guys it's a hard slog.

Sorry to break it to anyone not yet aware of the status quo here but there ain't and never has been an easy way into airline flying, if that's your goal. Smell the roses on the way is all I can say on the matter, hey, I only almost got killed twice today whilst instructing (and why is it nearly always the ones with a licence that scare you the most?!)! All together now - SNIFF! :\

VFE.

[Bis Fighter]

Why dont you try in India? The pay is much better than 15 K. They are really starved for Instructors. Security clearances and validation of your licence takes about 3 months.

[MachBuffet]

After several years of commercial flying, I am in the process of revalidating my FI rating in order to do some part time instructing. Whilst money is far from my main motivation for wanting to instruct, I am curious as to how much I could expect to earn per hour.

As the cost of revalidating my ticket is gonna be in the region of £1500, I wondered how long it is likely to take to pay for itself.

Thanks

[Prospin]

MachBuffet,

As a "part time" Instructor, I'd say that it's fair to estimate an hourly payment of £20. Obviously this boils down to working 75 hrs to pay off your estimated FI renewal charge.

This time of year is a bit quiet on the flying front but then again....... Flying season's just around the corner!!

Good Luck

[flybmi]

There has recently been an ad at the bottom of the page for instructors at Truman Aviation in Nottingham - it's claiming a salary of 20K +.

[Mr E Pilot]

I don't know how recession will affect FTOs but generally UK universities and training establishments do well in times of recession. The reason is that people naturally revert to gaining education or "retraining" in harder times.

Learning to flymay be different. There are many many motives for learning, I guess, from those who just want bragging rights or those who crave an airline job.:eek: The dynamic of the industry maybe set to change depending on socio-economic stuff.

For example, really rich people are usually unaffected by recession - so the potential fly the chopper to the party guys will still want to learn. But the young wannabe commercial pilot may find parents less able to pay for their training unless they are wealthy. The UK is set for an unpredictable few years.

Nothing in aviation is certain at the best of times.
The only certainty in aviation is the CAA charge to rubber stamp an A6 piece of paper:\

The global demand for FIs is expanding, however. Offering good pay and a great experience for the adventurous FI, countries like India offer fantastic opportunities.

[VNA Lotus]

" The global demand for FIs is expanding, however. Offering good pay and a great experience for the adventurous FI, countries like India offer fantastic opportunities."

Hey guys,

could you tell me what kind of opportunities India offers ??

I mean becoming FI in INDIA or another country I do not see the difference...the activity is the same except the environment...

My goal is to become airline pilot so if the opportunity would be to fly in the right seat of a A320/737, in this case I would say "yes" that's a big opportunity... But if it's just to be paid well and becoming a IRI/CRI etc to live 10000 far away from your home, you can do it in all JAR countries seriously.

Thanks! :}

[cessna310]

Hi,
anyone working in India with JAA FI?please share some info about job, pay, flying hours, accommodation. would b appreciated,

Thanks,

cessna310

[Passenger 07]

Thailand is recruiting Flight Instructors...

[clear prop!!!]

The WORLD is recruiting flying instructors!!

There has never been such a shortage,

If you are a CPL/Multi/IR instructor you can walk into a job at 40k plus in the morning!

Just about every PPL FTO is short of instructors and pay is just about becoming acceptable, even if they know you are using them to build hours.

I've just left an IRI job to join an airline and could have walked into at least 3 highly paid instructor jobs.

There has never been a better time for potential instructors.

[18greens]

MFWF, did you get a job??????

[mustflywillfly]

Hi 18,

In my OP I stated:

know we don't have a crystal ball but against this economic backdrop do you think this spells disaster for FI vacancies or the supposed FI shortage?

By October I will be popping out the system with an FI(R) and will be looking for employment. Ouch. Perhaps I should pull the plug on my dream and not bother with the CPL or FI(R) and just stick to flying as a hobby?

Any thoughts?

MFWF:ok:

So no I do not have a job yet as I am still doing the ground school and am awaiting the start of the CPL and FI(R) course. I am still "pricking" it though about whether I am criminally insane for making a career change in such turbulent times. The clock is ticking and in 1.5 weeks I leave the security of the Royal Navy and head out into the aviation wilderness!! I think I must have lost it. I am holding out for a DEFTS job on completion of training and hope they'll have me. Down side to that little plan is that they require an IR. Something I cannot afford to do until late 2009. Bugger.

Thanks for asking though!

Cheers

MFWF

[BlueRobin]

Anyone care to assess the state of things now we are in the run up to Summer? Yes I know we had snow this week!

Is the throughput of instructors still as high as it has been over the past two years? Or are positions now being held onto given the airlines seem to have stopped hoovering completely everyone up.

As an aside, I know two guys who each started their instructor job about 6 months ago. One is talking about leaving for better money elsewhere whilst the other has gone part-time and is working in an office. Surely this has not come as a result in reduced available flying hours? Has it?

In a further act of thread drift, who here holds another job?

Sorry I am having a slight lack of faith this evening. I am looking for inspiration whilst I await (for my first ever FI job) the result on one interview and hold onto two further, but more limited options. Incidentally I am well placed for two licensed airfields, but thereafter the road commute becomes an hour or more for the next nearest 4.

[duveldrinker]

After writing loads of FO applications and CV's I started my FI rating 2 years ago. Best decision I ever made ! I am flying 60 - 80 hrs / month, my income is not better or worse than junior FO's ( who are perhaps still paying money back for a type rating ), and the amount of students are still increasing. I hear and see the same story in other FTO's (BeNeLux+Germany - don't know anything about the UK situation.). So no worries here.

Ok BlueRobin, the worst job to find is the first one, but do not give up and why not consider looking a bit beyond the horizon ?

[BlueRobin]

My assessment is that FIs are presently required if a) a school has increased demand e.g. through a contract to train a bunch of sponsored students or b) a resident FI has moved on into another FI position elsewhere e.g. instructing for more advanced tickets. The days of the airlines sucking up *every* instructor seems to be over - for now.

[will fly for food 06]

There are plenty of FI jobs around at the moment.Some flying schools are struggling to fill instructor slots.

[Mickey Kaye]

Were you thinking of any schools in particular?

[BristolScout]

Might I suggest getting hold of a list of FTOs - Where to Fly guides in the magazines are good for this - and phoning around? You'll always find something if you are prepared to relocate from your domestic comfort zone. This is good practice for airline life, if that's where you want to go!