Pilot shortage
Alitalia's problems aren't only union based. Politics in Italy are pretty complex to put it lightly. Ultimately nothing will save it and it should have been shut down a decade ago. Nearly 10 Billion tax payer euros squandered.
Their staff to airframe ratio is horrendous.
Ultimately, they needed to make an offshoot LCC and they didn't and in came RYANAIR and it was good night from there. Kind of like Air Asia operating narrow bodies around Aus!
I noted the XIAMEN advertisment doing roadshows in Italy (Alitalia) and Germany (Air Berlin). Looks like buying/"investing" in crap airlines happens all over the world!
Their staff to airframe ratio is horrendous.
Ultimately, they needed to make an offshoot LCC and they didn't and in came RYANAIR and it was good night from there. Kind of like Air Asia operating narrow bodies around Aus!
I noted the XIAMEN advertisment doing roadshows in Italy (Alitalia) and Germany (Air Berlin). Looks like buying/"investing" in crap airlines happens all over the world!
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"Wonder which airline will be next to fold ? Must be a lot of old legacy carriers hanging on by a thread"
PIXIE is an old Legacy Carrier.....40 plus years.
Combining its Court action loss with the Pilot Groups ( that prob will make a debt of $USD 10 Million plus), with outdated work/management practices and a seriously ageing and outdated fleet, could end up putting around 50-60 expats on the market, together with an equal amount of Nationals.
PIXIE is an old Legacy Carrier.....40 plus years.
Combining its Court action loss with the Pilot Groups ( that prob will make a debt of $USD 10 Million plus), with outdated work/management practices and a seriously ageing and outdated fleet, could end up putting around 50-60 expats on the market, together with an equal amount of Nationals.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Icarus2001 View Post
Have you got any factual trends to back up your belief in a recession or just the Facebook headlines?
your kidding right ?? Real estate developers/builders/speculators are going belly up left right & centre. It's going to be a bad one. We had to have it though. Everyone thinks they should be paid a $1000 an hour for doing SFA & everyone thinks their ****ty little house is worth $2m. Reality is coming home fast.
Originally Posted by Icarus2001 View Post
Have you got any factual trends to back up your belief in a recession or just the Facebook headlines?
your kidding right ?? Real estate developers/builders/speculators are going belly up left right & centre. It's going to be a bad one. We had to have it though. Everyone thinks they should be paid a $1000 an hour for doing SFA & everyone thinks their ****ty little house is worth $2m. Reality is coming home fast.
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Before going any further, go and read this:
Boeing: Pilot and Technician Outlook
followed by downloading, reading and digesting this:
www.boeing.com/resources/boeingdotcom/commercial/.../pilottechnicianoutlook.pdf
Then return here to take part in an educated discussion
Ps>> Airbus produce similar quality information
Boeing: Pilot and Technician Outlook
followed by downloading, reading and digesting this:
www.boeing.com/resources/boeingdotcom/commercial/.../pilottechnicianoutlook.pdf
Then return here to take part in an educated discussion
Ps>> Airbus produce similar quality information
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Dark Knight, Boeing are notoriously anti-labour / anti-union. It is in their customers & their own interest to flood the market with pilots & technicians (as labour costs reduce, prices decline & therefore demand for aircraft increases).
I have always taken the Boeing forecasts as self interest by inducing an over supply of skilled labour with optimistic forecasts.
I have always taken the Boeing forecasts as self interest by inducing an over supply of skilled labour with optimistic forecasts.
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It is in their customers & their own interest to flood the market with pilots & technicians (as labour costs reduce, prices decline & therefore demand for aircraft increases).
...............
The USA had open immigration right up until the 1930's. Why? Because the factories needed unskilled labour and keeping the door open kept wages pitifully low. Just what the industrialists wanted.
Who mentioned pole dancer is the winner!
Kunda catch, Plugga.
I'll be in PNG next week..............
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Boeing forecasts as self interest
flood the market with pilots & technicians
Are the working conditions, salaries, etc. offered these days sufficient to convince people these careers are well rewarded offering are good lifestyle particularly considering family lifestyle?
It is easy to make bland, unsubstantiated statements accusing manufacturers and airline operators of being anti labour, anti union (which in part maybe they are) however, manufacturers are interested in selling aircraft, airline operators in selling seats but somewhere along the line research departments have to produce figures showing management how many aircraft to build, how many to buy and how many employees to crew, maintain, sell tickets and `sling the hash' are needed to do the work!
As I said, produce some substantial figures (your own researched figures?) to support your argument or statements?
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Fair criticisms DK.
To give you an idea of where I am coming from. When I look at long term projections, I look at the previous projection estimates that are then tested against what actually occurred. An excellent example is Infrastructure Australia 2015 Population Estimates The report goes into meticulous detail and audits their previous estimate performance, and show their methodology.
The issue is that projections are highly sensitive to initial input conditions and assumption in the later years of the projections due to the compounding and magnification of small initial errors. This is why ANY modelling is fraught with error. Its also why weather forecasts are so short range.
If I don't see a review of previous forecast performance, I am therefore suspicious of motive. I still contend that Boeing would be much happier to over, rather than under estimate demand for labour. There is little upside for them to under estimate demand.
The small print from the Boeing 2016 Pilot Forecast
To give you an idea of where I am coming from. When I look at long term projections, I look at the previous projection estimates that are then tested against what actually occurred. An excellent example is Infrastructure Australia 2015 Population Estimates The report goes into meticulous detail and audits their previous estimate performance, and show their methodology.
The issue is that projections are highly sensitive to initial input conditions and assumption in the later years of the projections due to the compounding and magnification of small initial errors. This is why ANY modelling is fraught with error. Its also why weather forecasts are so short range.
If I don't see a review of previous forecast performance, I am therefore suspicious of motive. I still contend that Boeing would be much happier to over, rather than under estimate demand for labour. There is little upside for them to under estimate demand.
The small print from the Boeing 2016 Pilot Forecast
The statements contained
herein are based on good faith
assumptions and provided for
general information purposes
only. These statements do not
constitute an offer, promise,
warranty or guarantee of
performance. Actual results may
vary depending on certain events
or conditions. This document
should not be used or relied upon
for any purpose other than that
intended by Boeing
herein are based on good faith
assumptions and provided for
general information purposes
only. These statements do not
constitute an offer, promise,
warranty or guarantee of
performance. Actual results may
vary depending on certain events
or conditions. This document
should not be used or relied upon
for any purpose other than that
intended by Boeing
Last edited by CurtainTwitcher; 8th May 2017 at 21:21. Reason: Boeing small print added
"plan to buy more aircraft - and don't worry, you won't have a struggle to find qualified people to operate them as there will be plenty of them"
rather than:
"plan to buy more aircraft - oh... and there will be a shortage of qualified people to operate them but that is your problem"
Boeing aren't projecting any of this growth in Australia. It will all be Asia and just about everywhere else other than Australia. Australian training organisations don't tell you this.
As another poster mentioned, we will need less engineers as as it's cheaper to offshore due to our high wages and training costs.
Just to prove a general point.
320 rating in USA costs around 17k AUD.
In Europe 27k (no base training required). Australia is over 40k now. How can they justify that?
As another poster mentioned, we will need less engineers as as it's cheaper to offshore due to our high wages and training costs.
Just to prove a general point.
320 rating in USA costs around 17k AUD.
In Europe 27k (no base training required). Australia is over 40k now. How can they justify that?
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As I live and breathe...
"One of the issues that I think we have to address is that maybe we have got the pilot pay a bit on the low side,” O’Leary said. “Maybe we have pushed it a little bit far in terms of pilot pay and pilot productivity."
Of course Australia must still be 'different'
Will pilots accept any further erosion of terms and conditions in Australia?
Rest assured, IR although not working today, will repeat the narrative that there are a bunch of contractors, subsidiary airlines to fly unless you give up whatever is left.
Retirements are eating the majors in the US
Even O'leary admits its gone too far.
The magic eight ball hopes Australian pilots actually see the demographics, the lack of supply and realistically push back to any further cuts. Of course your friendly IR practitioner bets on pilots being fearful,uninformed and convinced the threat of redundancy is ever potent...
"One of the issues that I think we have to address is that maybe we have got the pilot pay a bit on the low side,” O’Leary said. “Maybe we have pushed it a little bit far in terms of pilot pay and pilot productivity."
Of course Australia must still be 'different'
Will pilots accept any further erosion of terms and conditions in Australia?
Rest assured, IR although not working today, will repeat the narrative that there are a bunch of contractors, subsidiary airlines to fly unless you give up whatever is left.
Retirements are eating the majors in the US
Even O'leary admits its gone too far.
The magic eight ball hopes Australian pilots actually see the demographics, the lack of supply and realistically push back to any further cuts. Of course your friendly IR practitioner bets on pilots being fearful,uninformed and convinced the threat of redundancy is ever potent...
I understand the current QF SO intakes are experienced Captains and FOs from the regionals and LCCs. In the past I understand the new intakes were way less experienced, a lot from single pilot charter operators. When you take a good look around GA there simply aren't the number of GA operators to draw from and the number of flight training organisations who would train pilots are rapidly disappearing. I reckon you'll see a drastic change in where new intakes come from once the pool of those prepared to leave regionals and LCCs dry up.
It will be interesting to learn how the regionals and LCCs replace the pilots they've lost.
It will be interesting to learn how the regionals and LCCs replace the pilots they've lost.